IMF-扩张性财政政策的通货膨胀风险（英）

The Inflationary Risks of Expansionary Fiscal Policy Sophia Chen SIP/2025/144IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on September 15, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/281. 2025 NOV © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/144 IMF Selected Issues Paper Western Hemisphere Department The Inflationary Risks of Expansionary Fiscal Policy, Colombia Prepared by Sophia Chen* Authorized for distribution by Ding Ding November 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on September 15, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/281. ABSTRACT: Drawing on an extensive literature, this paper examines the extent to which expansionary fiscal policy poses a challenge to containing inflation. It does so by assessing how inflation responds to shocks to the fiscal deficit and public debt, and by identifying the channels through which these effects operate in Latin American countries. The analysis finds that unanticipated fiscal deficits are associated with higher current and future inflation. Consistent with predictions from an open economy Phillips curve framework, output gaps widen, inflation expectations rise, and the real exchange rate depreciates—due to an increase in the risk premium—following a shock. Unanticipated public debt is also linked to higher inflation mainly through the output gap and exchange rate channels. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Chen, Sophia. 2025. “The Inflationary Risks of Expansionary Fiscal Policy”. IMF Selected Issues Paper SIP/2025/144. JEL Classification Numbers: E21, E52, E63, H6 Keywords: Inflation, Inflation expectation, Fiscal deficits, Public debt, Phillips curve, Latin America Author’s E-Mail Address: Ychen2@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS The Inflationary Risks of Expansionary Fiscal Policy Colombia Prepared by Sophia Chen1 1 The author would like to thank Philip Barrett, Luis Cubeddu, Ding Ding, Gon Huertas, Daniel Leigh, Juan Passadore, Roberto Perrelli, and seminar participants at the Banco de La República for helpful suggestions. COLOMBIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByWestern Hemisphere Department Prepared by Sophia Chen (WHD) THE INFLATIONARY RISKS OF EXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY ____________________ 2 FIGURES 1. Responses to Structural Deficit Shocks _______________________________________________ 72. Inflation Responses to Alternative Measures of Fiscal Shocks ________________________ 83. Responses to Public Debt Shocks ____________________________________________________ 9TABLES1. Responses to Fiscal and Public Debt Shocks _______________________________________ 102. Responses to Alternative Measures of Fiscal Deficit Shocks _______________