UBS Economics-European Economic Comment _European PMIs Broadly stable in ...-118986917

ab21 November 2025Global ResearchEuropean Economic CommentEuropean PMIs: Broadly stable in NovemberPMIs broadly stable, but details relatively softThe Eurozone Composite PMI (survey period 11-19 Nov.) eased marginally (-0.1 point to 52.4), broadly in line with expectations (consensus: 52.5). Changes at the sector level were relatively small. More specifically, the headline Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.3 points to 49.7 (consensus 50.1). The details were on the soft side with marginal declines in manufacturing output (-0.6 to 50.5), new orders (-0.3 to 49.7) and employment (-0.3 to 47.8), while new export orders were broadly unchanged (at 48.9). In contrast, future business expectations were up 2.8 points to 60.9. The Services PMI edged up 0.1 point 53.1, exceeding consensus expectations of a small decline (to 52.8). However, the details were on the weak side with declines in employment (-1.1 to 50.8), new business (-0.5 to 52.3) and business expectations (-0.2 to 58.6). As a result, at the composite level, new orders fell 0.4 points to 51.6 and employment was down 0.9 points to 50.0. In contrast, better expectations in manufacturing pushed composite future business expectations up 0.6 points to 59.2. Despite the broadly stable November PMIs, taken together, the October/November Composite PMI average at 52.5 is above the Q3 average (51.0). Eurozone Q4 GDP will be released on 30 January. According to our forecast, growth will slow to 0.1% q/q in Q4, following 0.2% q/q in Q3. Overall, we project Eurozone GDP growth to average 1.4% in 2025. Country detail: French PMI reverses October drop, German PMI moderatesThe German Composite PMI fell 1.8 points to a 2-month low of 52.1, amid declines in both the Manufacturing PMI (-1.2 points to 48.4) and the Services PMI (-1.9 points to 52.7). Weakness was broad-based in manufacturing with output and new (notably export) orders declining. Similar trends were visible in services. Overall future output expectations, however, increased slightly. The French Composite PMI rose 2.2 points to 49.9, the highest level since Aug-24, matching the improvement seen in today's INSEE business sentiment. The increase was driven solely by an improvement in the Services PMI (+2.8 points to 50.8), which more than reversed the drop in October (which may have reflected political instability at the start of October ). However, the details were mixed with declines in employment but improvements in new business and future business expectations. Similar trends were observed in manufacturing. At the composite level, employment was down, but business expectations were up.UK Composite PMI down amid weaker services and manufacturing outputThe UK Composite PMI fell 1.7 points to 50.5 in November (consensus: 51.8). The decline was driven by weaker services and manufacturing output, which goes into the calculation of the Composite PMI. In contrast to manufacturing output, the headline Manufacturing PMI was up 0.5 points to 50.2 (consensus