法国预测与国际信息中心-部门联系和移民对出口绩效的影响（英）

HighlightsThis paper studies how immigrants in intermediate sectors affect downstream export performance.We develop a theoretical model in which a sector’s exports depend not only on its own immigrant workforce but also on immigrant labor in input-supplying sectors.We show that increases in immigrant employment in these sectors raise exports in connected downstream industries.Sectoral Linkages and the Impact of Immigration on Export PerformanceNo 2025-17 – November 2025Working PaperAmandine Aubry & Anthony Edo1 CEPII Working Paper Sectoral Linkages and the Impact of Immigration on Export PerformanceAbstractThis paper studies how immigrants in intermediate sectors affect downstream export performance. We develop a theoretical model in which a sector’s exports depend not only on its own immigrant workforce, but also on immigrant labor in input-supplying sectors. Using a new dataset on U.S. input–output from 2003-2017, we show that increases in immigrant employment in these sectors raise exports in connected downstream industries. This effect operates partly through improved production efficiency that lowers upstream input costs. By linking labor migration to production networks, we identify a new channel through which immigration shapes comparative advantage in international trade.KeywordsImmigration, Trade, Sectoral Linkages, Intermediate Sectors.JELF22, F16, J61, O31.Working Paper© CEPII, PARIS, 2025Centre d’études prospectives et d’informations internationales 20, avenue de Ségur TSA 10726 75334 Paris Cedex 07contact@cepii.fr www.cepii.fr – @CEPII_Paris Press contact: presse@cepii.frCEPII Working PaperContributing to research in international economicsCEPII (Centre d’Études Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales) is a French institute dedicated to producing independent, policy-oriented economic research helpful to understand the international economic environment and challenges in the areas of trade policy, competitiveness, macroeconomics, international finance and growth.EdItoRIAl dIRECtoR: AntoInE BouëtVISuAl dESIgn And PRoduCtIon: lAuRE BoIVInISSN 2970-491XNovember 2025To subscribe to The CEPII Newsletter: www.cepii.fr/KeepInformedAll rights reserved. Opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) alone.2CEPII Working PaperSectoral Linkages and the Impact of Immigration on Export PerformanceSectoral Linkages and the Impact ofImmigration on Export Performance*Amandine Aubry†, Anthony Edo‡1IntroductionModern economies operate as intricate production networks, where shocks in one sec-tor ripple through others (Carvalho and Tahbaz-Salehi, 2019). Immigration, meanwhile,reshapes local labor markets and production efficiency (Lewis and Peri, 2015; Dustmannand Sch¨onberg, 2025). Although prior research highlights the importance of sectoral link-ages for trade (Caliendo and Parro, 2014; Baqaee and Farhi, 2024), little is known abouthow immigration interacts with these production networks to affect downstream economicoutcomes