韩国央行-韩国宏观审慎政策的有效性及其与货币政策的最优政策组合分析（英）

No. 2025-26 BANK OF KOREA BOK Issue Note September 21, 2025 Analysis of the Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policy and its Optimal Policy Mix with Monetary Policy in Korea Choi Changhun Economist, Macroeconomic Modeling Team, Office of Economic Modeling and Policy Analysis, Bank of Korea Tel. 02-759-4226 coolingfan83@bok.or.kr Choo Dongho Economist, Macroeconomic Modeling Team, Office of Economic Modeling and Policy Analysis, Bank of Korea Tel. 02-759-4248 dhchoo@bok.or.kr Yoon Jinwoon Junior Economist, Macroeconomic Modeling Team, Office of Economic Modeling and Policy Analysis, Bank of Korea Tel. 02-759-4176 jinwoon@bok.or.kr Lee Gaeun Junior Economist, Macroeconomic Modeling Team, Office of Economic Modeling and Policy Analysis, Bank of Korea Tel. 02-759-4170 gel1018@bok.or.kr [Executive Summary] 1. Amid prolonged economic slowdown and forecasts that Korea’s growth in 2025 and 2026 will remain below its potential, house prices in Seoul have continued to rise–driven largely by the apartment–since the second half of last year, accompanied by a continued increase in household debt, heightening concerns over financial stability risks. 2. In such circumstances, interest rate cuts aimed at mitigating the economic slowdown could further increase the financial stability risk. Consequently, monetary policy alone cannot simultaneously achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability, making close coordination with macroprudential policy more necessary. This paper presents an effective policy mix of monetary and macroprudential policies in the context where the trade-off between economic growth and financial stability has intensified. 3. We first analyze the main drivers of Seoul apartment price fluctuations and find that economic conditions, housing supply–demand and market sentiment, and interest rates collectively influence price movements. Since June of last year, despite the downward pressure from the weak economy, supply–demand and market sentiment, along with interest rate have exerted the upward pressure, driving the continued rise in Seoul apartment prices. 4. Next, the tightening of macroprudential policy was found to be effective in curbing the rise in house prices and the growth of mortgage loans, while having only a limited impact on constraining economic growth. This suggests that more stringent macroprudential policy can partially offset the adverse impact of accommodative monetary policy on financial stability. 5. To explore an effective policy mix between monetary and macroprudential policies, we examine how the timing of macroprudential policy tightening affects its impact on financial stability based on model simulation. The results demonstrate that when macroprudential tightening precedes accommodative monetary policy, it is more effective in curbing the rise in house prices and the growth of household lending than when it follows. 6. Meanwhile, amid continued increases in house prices and household debt,