IMF-全球经济风云变幻，前景依然黯淡（英）

2025OCTWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOKGlobal Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain DimINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND2025OCTINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOKGlobal Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim©2025 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF LibraryNames: International Monetary Fund.Title: World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)Other titles: WEO | Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) | World economic and financial surveys.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for May 1980. | 1981-1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365 | 1986-: World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877.Identifiers: ISSN 0256-6877 (print) | ISSN 1564-5215 (online)Subjects: LCSH: Economic development—Periodicals. | International economic relations—Periodicals. | Debts, External—Periodicals. | Balance of payments—Periodicals. | International finance—Periodicals. | Economic forecasting—Periodicals.Classification: LCC HC10.W79HC10.80 ISBN 979-8-22902-394-8 (English Paper) 979-8-22902-402-0 (English ePub) 979-8-22902-400-6 (English Web PDF)Disclaimer: The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff pub-lished twice a year, in the spring and fall. The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on September 29, 2025. The views expressed in this publica-tion are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2025. World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim. Washington, DC. October.Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publications@IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.orgelibrary.IMF.orgErrataOctober 22, 2025This web version of the WEO has been updated to reflect the following changes to the version published online on October 14, 2025: - Chapter 1, Commodity Special Feature, page 35: “Vida Maver” was added to the contributor list footnote. - Chapter 2, section titled “The Contribution of Policy Frameworks to Macroeconomic Stabilization,” page 62: “Easterly and others (1993)” was added to the first sentence. The full reference was added to the reference list on page 72.- Chapter 2, Figure 2.3.1, panel 2, page 70: “(Percent)” was corrected to “(Percentage points).”- Statistical Appendix, Table A2, page 125: The data for the first 12 columns for the Czech Republic and Norway were corrected.International Monetary Fund | October 2025iiiAssumptions and Conventions viiFurther Information ixData xPreface xiForeword xiiExecutive Summary xvChapter