货币公报（英）

2025 3 MONETARYBULLETINPublished by:The Central Bank of Iceland, Kalkofnsvegur 1, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland(+354) 569 9600, sedlabanki@sedlabanki.is, www.sedlabanki.isVol. 27 no. 3, 20 August 2025 ISSN 1670-438X, onlineThis is a translation of a document originally written in Icelandic. In case of discrepancy or difference in interpretation, the Icelandic original prevails. Both versions are available at www.cb.is.Material may be reproduced from Monetary Bulletin, but an acknowledgement of source is kindly requested.The objective of the Central Bank of Iceland’s monetary policy is to contribute to general economic well-being in Iceland. The Central Bank does so by promoting price stability, which is one of its mainobjectives. In the joint declaration made by the Government of Iceland and Central Bank of Iceland on 27 March 2001, this is defined as aiming at an average rate of inflation, measured as the 12-month increase in the CPI, of as close to 2½% as possible.Professional analysis and transparency are prerequisites for credible monetary policy. In publishing Monetary Bulletin four times a year, the Central Bank aims to fulfil these principles. Monetary Bulletin includes a detailed analysis of economic developments and prospects, on which the Monetary Policy Committee’s interest rate decisions are based. It also represents a vehicle for the Bank’s accountability towards Government authorities and the public.Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee 20 August 2025 The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Iceland has decided to keep the Bank’s interest rates unchanged. The Bank’s key interest rate – the rate on seven-day term deposits – will therefore remain 7.50%. All Committee members voted in favour of the decision.Headline inflation measured 4% in July, after falling by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. According to the Central Bank’s newly published forecast, it will rise again in the months ahead but then start to ease in early 2026. The inflation outlook remains highly uncertain, however.Growth in domestic demand has subsided in line with a tight monetary policy stance. Capacity pressures in the economy have therefore eased, as can be seen in the cooling of the housing and labour markets. Even so, economic activity still appears relatively robust, wages have risen markedly, and inflation expectations remain above target. Although inflation has eased and inflation expectations have fallen in the recent term, inflationary pressures remain. The conditions that would enable an easing of the real interest rate have therefore not yet emerged. Further interest rate cuts will depend on whether infla-tion moves closer to the Bank’s 2½% target. As before, near-term monetary policy formulation will be determined by developments in economic activity, inflation, and inflation expectations. Icelandic letters: ð/Ð (pronounced like th in English this) þ/Þ (pronounced like th in English think) In this report, ð is transli