麦肯锡_2025重塑未来：全球贸易变局中的印度汽车零部件产业研究报告

September 2025Shaping the future of India’s auto component industry amid global trade shiftsiiShaping the future of India’s auto component industry amid global trade shiftsSeptember 2025Shaping the future of India’s auto component industry amid global trade shiftsivShaping the future of India’s auto component industry amid global trade shiftsMcKinsey & Company has developed this independent research report as the knowledge partner for the 65th Annual Conference organized by the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA).The authors thank ACMA’s leadership for the opportunity to present this study at the Annual Session. In particular, we are grateful to Shradha Suri Marwah, Vikrampati Singhania, Vinnie Mehta, members of the ACMA steering committee, the ACMA secretariat, and the many industry leaders for their contribution. Many McKinsey colleagues provided valuable advice and analysis for this report, including Nitesh Gupta, Bhavesh Mittal, K Ganesh, Soundharya Narayanan, Gandharv Vig, and Akshay Asija. We thank McKinsey’s project team, consisting of Meghana G and Sumit Goenka. We are also grateful to Anamika Mukharji and Fatema Nulwala for their communications expertise and guidance, and to P Sarath Kumar for the design of this report. Authors Brajesh Chhibber PartnerRajat Dhawan Senior PartnerShivanshu Gupta Senior PartnerShubham Singhal Senior PartnerAkash Misra Associate PartnerJayati Shah Associate PartnerThis report is independent, reflects the views of the authors, and has not been commissioned by any business, government, or other institution.AcknowledgmentsvShaping the future of India’s auto component industry amid global trade shiftsviShaping the future of India’s auto component industry amid global trade shiftsContentsExecutive summary1India’s auto component opportunity amid shifting trade dynamics2Implications of global trade disruptions for India’s auto component value chain3Achieving value for India’s auto component industry151323viiiShaping the future of India’s auto component industry amid global trade shiftsGeopolitical and structural changes have been redrawing global trade patterns, with an estimated $12 trillion to $14 trillion in trade expected to shift across trade corridors by 2035.1 Despite these challenges, global trade is projected to grow from $33 trillion in 2024 to $42 trillion to $45 trillion by 2035.1The auto component industry has been heavily impacted by trade corridor shifts. India is now emerging as a key player in this realignment, helped by its cost competitiveness, skilled workforce, and growing domestic market.2 This is evidenced by a steady expansion of opportunities in the domestic and export markets and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 10 percent over the past five years in the Indian auto component industry. With domestic and exports demand rising further, this industry is projected to reach $200 billion by 2030.3The two pillars driving this growth are a $20 billion to $30