欧洲央行-英国脱欧四年后欧盟与英国的贸易和投资探索（英）

Occasional Paper Series Exploring EU-UK trade and investment four years after Brexit International Relations Committee, EU-UK Network No 379 Disclaimer: This publication should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. ECB Occasional Paper Series No 379 1 Contents 1 Abstract 3 2 Non-technical summary 4 3 Foreword 7 4 Introduction: the institutional context for the analysis of trade and FDI between the EU and the United Kingdom 8 5 EU-UK trade after Brexit 11 5.1 Introduction 11 5.2 EU-UK trade developments 13 5.3 An estimation of the impact on trade of the end of the Brexit transition period 14 5.4 Post-Brexit redirection of trade 20 5.5 The impact of Brexit on European exports to the United Kingdom 31 5.6 Recent developments in EU-UK trade in services after Brexit 39 Box 1 The effect of Brexit on UK citizens travelling abroad 42 6 Monitoring EU-UK FDI links following Brexit 45 6.1 Introduction 45 6.2 Recent developments in EU-UK FDI since 2016 47 Box 2 FDI flows between the Netherlands and the United Kingdom 49 Box 3 FDI flows between Luxembourg and the United Kingdom 50 Box 4 Mapping correlation (multi-dimensional scaling) 52 Box 5 Foreign affiliates of EU and UK enterprises 55 Box 6 FDI stocks and manufacturing FDI 58 Box 7 Selected data from Ernst & Young European Investment Monitor 62 6.3 The case for the UK financial sector 64 6.4 Estimating the impact of Brexit on EU-UK FDI – a gravity model approach 74 6.5 In summary 80 ECB Occasional Paper Series No 379 2 7 References 90 ECB Occasional Paper Series No 379 3 1 Abstract This paper looks at how Brexit has affected trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) between the United Kingdom and the EU. In 2020 the United Kingdom and the EU signed the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA)1, establishing the post-Brexit relationship and, in particular, a tariff-free area for goods produced in either of the two economies. However, non-tariff barriers to the trading of goods and services have emerged. Moreover, the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU has affected its attractiveness as an investment target. We analyse recent developments in UK imports and exports with the EU and the rest of the world, in both goods and services, including financial services and tourism. Our estimates suggest that, after the Brexit transition period, UK exports to the EU contracted by almost 40%, due to the emergence of non-tariff barriers with the EU, and the fact that no significant UK trade flows were redirected to other partners. Finally, the analysis of product-level data on German, French, Italian and Spanish exports to the United Kingdom has confirmed the significant negative impact of Brexit, especially for goods highly exposed or highly sensitive to increases in trade costs. The FDI analysis begins with a conjunctural assessment that includes recent trends in EU-UK FDI at a