麦肯锡-代理商业机会：人工智能代理如何为消费者和商家开创一个新时代（英）

October 2025The agentic commerce opportunity: How AI agents are ushering in a new era for consumers and merchantsCopyright © 2025 McKinsey & Company.All rights reserved.Cover image © Andriy Onufriyenko/Getty Images.Confidential and proprietary. Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited.Agentic AI promises to radically remake the entire shopping experience. Here’s a glimpse into the near future—and what merchants, players, and platforms need to know in order to thrive.by Katharina Schumacher and Roger Roberts with Katharina GiebelContentsAt a glance 2CHAPTER 1 A new kind of shopping experience—seamless, efficient, and mediated by AI agents 3CHAPTER 2 Creating the infrastructure for agentic commerce 7CHAPTER 3 Business model evolution in the era of agentic commerce 12CHAPTER 4 Navigating trust and risk: Why responsible AI is key to agentic commerce adoption at scale 18CHAPTER 5 The challenges and opportunities of agentic commerce 221The agentic commerce opportunity: How AI agents are ushering in a new era for consumers and merchants — Agentic commerce—shopping powered by AI agents acting on our behalf—represents a seismic shift in the marketplace. It moves us toward a world in which AI anticipates consumer needs, navigates shopping options, negotiates deals, and executes transactions, all in alignment with human intent yet acting independently via multistep chains of actions enabled by reasoning models. — This isn’t just an evolution of e-commerce. It’s a rethinking of shopping itself in which the boundaries between platforms, services, and experiences give way to an integrated intent-driven flow, through highly personalized consumer journeys that deliver a fast, frictionless outcome. — The stakes are high: By 2030, the US B2C retail market alone could see up to $1 trillion in orchestrated revenue from agentic commerce, with global projections reaching as high as $3 trillion to $5 trillion, according to McKinsey research. — This trend will have the breadth of impact of prior web and mobile-commerce revolutions, but it can move even faster since agents can traverse the same digital paths to purchase as humans, allowing them to “ride on the rails” laid down by these prior revolutions. — This presents both benefits and risks for today’s commerce ecosystem. All kinds of businesses—brands, retailers, marketplaces, logistics and commerce services providers, and payments players—will need to adapt to the new paradigm and successfully navigate the challenges of trust, risk, and innovation. — From a technical standpoint, that means mastering and deploying emerging integration enablers like Anthropic’s Model Context Protocol (MCP), Agent-to-Agent (A2A) Protocol, Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), and Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) that enable a new era of intelligent, autonomous agents. It also means fundamentally re-architecting approaches to identity management and loyalty. Smart organizations a