2025年英国能源转型展望报告（英）

ELECTRICITY & GAS A national forecast to 2050ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK UK 2025FOREWORDAs we enter 2025, the energy industry stands at a pivotal moment in its history. Despite global economic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainties, we've witnessed unprecedented momentum in clean energy deployment and DNV forecasts that the world will hit peak emissions this year.The UK's energy landscape is transforming rapidly, with record-breaking renewable energy generation and falling costs of clean technologies setting new benchmarks for what is possible.The past year has demonstrated the UK’s potential on this transition journey. We've seen wind power generation reach historic highs, battery storage capacity expand significantly and Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption showing signs of recovery. However, these achievements, while significant, are merely the initial steps toward our 2050 net-zero goal.The ambitious new transition pathway mapped out by the UK government includes three critical mile-stones that will shape our journey towards net zero. This DNV report — the UK Energy Transition Outlook 2025 — reveals a mixed picture of progress and challenges against each of these targets: First, by 2030, we expect to see a dramatic expansion of clean power infrastructure, with installed renewable capacity forecast to double, reducing our reliance on gas to less than 12%, but falling just short of the Clean Power 2030 target. Second, we see progress towards the UK’s new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) target by reducing today’s emissions by more than a third by 2035. Finally, our forecast for 2050 sees the UK successfully decoupling economic growth from energy consumption, reducing UK energy demand by 25% and emissions by 82% compared with 1990 levels. But clearly the UK is not reaching net zero. Significant challenges remain to be tackled, particu-larly in electrifying our demand in heating and transport sectors. The transformation of domestic heating systems requires coherent implementation plans and associated incentives for heat pump adoption and building efficiency improvements. In transport, while the EV fleet and infrastructure is expanding rapidly, replacement of the current largely petrol/diesel-based vehicle fleet will be a gradual, slow process. The UK must also accelerate the devel-opment of solutions for heavy transport and aviation, including synthetic fuels and hydrogen technologies.As we navigate this transformation, we must keep in mind that change of this scale happens incremen-tally. Even though the UK continues to take large bites out of its reliance on fossil fuels, we need to recognize that oil and gas will remain dominant in our energy mix up to the early 2040s. Hence, we need to ensure robust plans are in place to manage our existing gas infrastructure, while working steadily on decarbonizing parts of the energy system through Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and hydrogen infrastructure.The build-out of CCS infrastructure is finally out