世界银行-2025年10月南亚宏观贫困展望：发展中国家的国别分析和预测，2025年年会（英）

MMMPPOOO10/2025South AsiaCountry-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing WorldCountry-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing WorldMACRO POVERTYOUTLOOKPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized© 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Macro Poverty Outlook / October 2025Macro Poverty Outlook / October 20251South AsiaBangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka BANGLADESHGDP growth eased marginally to 4.0 percent in FY25,compared to 4.2 percent in FY24. International reservesincreased, the exchange rate stabilized, inflation started tomoderate, and investment activity slowed. Household wel-fare also deteriorated, with poverty at the US$3.0 interna-tional line projected to rise to 8.9 percent, even as in-equality declined slightly (0.2 Gini points). After a moderateFY26 recovery, growth should accelerate medium term.Key conditions and challengesNotwithstanding a sharp deceleration in the first quarter due tothe uprising and floods, economic growth picked up in the finalquarters of FY25. External sector pressures have eased. However,there have been limited signs of the investment climate improv-ing, and financial sector vulnerabilities persisted. Inflation, whileelevated, has moderated.Between 2023 and 2024, labor force participation fell from 60.9 to58.9 percent, driven mainly by lower female participation. The em-ploymentratiofell2.1percentagepointsto56.7percent,whileunem-ploymentroseslightlyto3.7percent.Joblossesaveraged2.6percentacrosssectors,withthesharpestdeclineinservices(3.6percent).Bangladesh needs comprehensive reforms to mobilize revenue tofinance development expenditure and improve business environ-ment to create more and better