韩国央行-近期经济发展（2025年10月）（英）

PRESS RELEASEOct 23, 2025Research Department & Office of Economic Modeling and Policy AnalysisRecent Economic DevelopmentsSummary▣ Korea's economic growth will likely remain broadly in line with the August outlook of 0.9% this year, as consumption and exports remain on a favorable trend despite sluggish construction investment. ￭ Next year, the recovery is expected to continue, led by domestic demand, while exports are projected to slow due to the impact of U.S. tariffs. ￭ Uncertainties surrounding Korea-U.S. and U.S.-China trade negotiations, as well as semiconductor cycle, have intensified on both the upside and downside.▣ CPI inflation is projected to hover around 2%, reflecting low demand-side pressures and stable global oil prices despite the recent Korean won's depreciation. ￭ Looking ahead, the inflation trajectory will likely be influenced by domestic and global economic developments, as well as movements in exchange rates and oil prices.< Contacts > Macro Forecasting & Research TeamMinji GoSoo Jung Chang+82-2-759-4166 (mjgo@bok.or.kr)+82-2-759-4254 (crystalj@bok.or.kr)Recent Economic DevelopmentsOct 2025Ⅰ.Ⅰ.Ⅰ. GlobalGlobalGlobal EconomicEconomicEconomic ConditionsConditionsConditions ................................ 111Ⅱ.Ⅱ.Ⅱ. Developments in Korea’s EconomyDevelopments in Korea’s EconomyDevelopments in Korea’s Economy........................ 222 <Appendix> Key Economic Indicators- 1 - Korea's economic growth will likely remain broadly in line with the August outlook of 0.9% this year, as consumption and exports remain on a favorable trend despite sluggish construction investment. Next year, the recovery is expected to continue, led by domestic demand, while exports are projected to slow due to the impact of U.S. tariffs. CPI inflation is projected to hover around 2%, reflecting low demand-side pressures and stable global oil prices despite the recent Korean won's depreciation. The forecast path is subject to considerable uncertainty regarding factors such as Korea-U.S. and U.S.-China trade negotiations, as well as semiconductor cycle.Ⅰ. Ⅰ. Ⅰ. GlobalGlobalGlobal EconomicEconomicEconomic ConditionsConditionsConditions▢ The global economy is expected to face increasing headwinds from U.S. tariffs amid persistent uncertainties, including signs of reigniting U.S.-China trade tensions. However, slowdown in growth will likely be moderate, supported by policy responses from major economies.§ The United States economy is projected to grow below its potential rate due to elevated inflation and a weakening labor market.§ In the Euro area, growth is forecast to improve due to accommodative financial conditions and fiscal stimulus by major economies. The pace of recovery, however, is likely to remain moderate given the challenging trade environment.§ In China, growth is expected to be in line with the previous forecast, supported by domestic stimulus measures and export diversification that cushion the impact of