IMF-潜在增长和移民：立陶宛共和国（英）

Potential Growth and Migration Lukas Boer SIP/2025/138IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 29, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/259. 2025 OCT © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/138 IMF Selected Issues Paper European Department Potential Growth and Migration, Republic of Lithuania Prepared by Lukas Boer* Authorized for distribution by Kazuko Shirono October 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 29, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/259. ABSTRACT: Recent immigrants have been successfully absorbed into the Lithuanian labor market and legislative amendments have enabled easier migration for high-skilled workers despite the reduction of non-EU workers quota in 2025. The analysis in this note shows immigration can play a role in mitigating the impact of aging on labor force and support potential output growth. Policies should continue to focus on integrating migrants in the most productivity-enhancing way possible while allowing the participation of foreign professionals in those sectors with the largest shortages. At the same time, given the uncertainty about immigration developments, addressing remaining constraints limiting capital deepening and TFP growth would be crucial. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Boer, Lukas, 2025, “Potential Growth and Migration.” IMF Selected Issues Paper 2025/138. JEL Classification Numbers: E23, D24, O15, O40 Keywords: Potential growth, TFP, Migration, Demographics, Lithuania Author’s E-Mail Address: LBoer@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Potential Growth and Migration Republic of Lithuania Prepared by Lukas Boer1 1 “The author would like to thank Saioa Armendariz, Helge Berger, Harri Kemp, Alberto Musso and Kazuko Shirono for helpful comments and Sadhna Naik for excellent research assistance. REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved By European Department Prepared By Lukas Boer POTENTIAL GROWTH AND MIGRATION A. Introduction ________________________________________________________________________ 2 B. Estimation Approach ________________________________________________________________ 5 C. Scenario Analysis ___________________________________________________________________ 6 D. Conclusions _________________________________________________________________________ 8 FIGURES 1. Labor Force and Migration __________________________________________________________ 3 2. Integration of Migrant Workers _____________________________________________________ 4 3. Model Assumptions _________________________________________________________________ 7 4. Potential Growth and Contributions ________________