国际清算银行-天气灾害的宏观经济影响：全球和部门分析（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1292 Macroeconomic impact of weather disasters: a global and sectoral analysis by Torsten Ehlers, Jon Frost, Carlos Madeira and Ilhyock Shim Monetary and Economic Department September 2025 JEL classification: E31, E32, O13, Q54 Keywords: climate change, GDP growth, inflation, natural disasters, sectoral production BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Macroeconomic impact of weather disasters: a global andsectoral analysis*Torsten Ehlers,† Jon Frost,‡ Carlos Madeira§ and Ilhyock Shim¶26 September 2025AbstractWhether and how extreme weather shocks transmit to economic activity and, in turn, inflationis key for monetary policy. We look at the macroeconomic effects of different types of weatherdisaster for up to 151 countries over 2000-24. We study their macro-level and sectoral effectson GDP growth and on relevant sub-components of inflation. Using local projections, we findthat the negative effects on GDP can be quite sizable and long-lived: -2%, -1% and -0.4%after the average-size droughts, landslides and wildfires, respectively, over four years. At thesectoral level, we find that agriculture-forestry-fishing and mining-construction-water-energyare negatively affected by several types of weather disaster. Most types of weather disaster haverelatively small and short-lived effects on inflation, but with larger and more persistent increasesin food prices than in the other components of CPI. Fiscal space and insurance can reduce thenegative impact of natural disasters.JEL classification: E31; E32; O13; Q54.Keywords: climate change; GDP growth; inflation; natural disasters; sectoral production.*We thank Gaston Gelos, Benoˆıt Mojon, Hyun Song Shin, Frank Smets, Alexandre Tombini, Santiago Garc´ıa-Verd´uand participants at Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Bank of Mexico and NGFS Expert Network seminars forhelpful comments, and Rafael Guerra, Alejandro Parada and Pablo Tomasini for excellent research assistance. Theviews in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the BIS or the Central Bank of Chile.†Bank for International Settlements, torsten.ehlers@bis.org.‡Bank for International Settlements, jon.frost@bis.org, and Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF).§Central Bank of Chile, cmadeira@bcentral.cl.¶Bank for International Settlements, ilhyock.shim@bis.org.11