贝莱德Q4全球经济展望：2025年终盘点与未来趋势（英）

Global OutlookQ4 updateSeptember 2025BlackRockCAPITAL AT RISK. INVESTMENTS CAN RISE OR FALL IN VALUE. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, LATIN AMERICA, AUSTRIA, GERMANY, FRANCE, ITALY, LIECHTENSTEIN, IRELAND, SPAIN, PORTUGUAL, BELGIUM, UK, LUXEMBOURG, SWITZERLAND, NETHERLANDS, NORWAY, FINLAND, SWEDEN, DENMARK, ISRAEL, SOUTH AFRICA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES. BlackRockInvestmentInstituteBIIM0925E/M-4833061-1/24Staying pro-risk through April’s volatility worked wellEquities across the world rebounded from April’s tariff-driven plunge. We argued immutable economic laws would rein in a maximal stance on tariffs and policy, paving the way for a sharp rebound. 2Regional equity performance, 2025The figures shown relate to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Capital at risk. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, MSCI, with data from LSEG Datastream, September 2025. Note: The chart shows different components of total returns for various regional indexes in local currency – except for emerging markets. Indexes used: MSCI China, MSCI EM $, MSCI UK, MSCI EMU, MSCI Japan and MSCI USA. CAPITAL AT RISK. INVESTMENTS CAN RISE OR FALL IN VALUE. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, LATIN AMERICA, SELECT COUNTRIES IN EUROPE (SEE THE FULL DISCLAIMER), ISRAEL, SOUTH AFRICA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES. U.S.Euro areaJapanEM (US$)UKChina90100110120130Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.May.Jun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Index level (rebased to Apr. 8 = 100)BIIM0925E/M-4833061-2/24U.S. post-WWII peak0%25%50%75%100%125%150%175%1970198019902000201020202030Share of GDPU.S.FranceUKItalyGermanyPressure builds on long-term bonds across developed marketsLong-term government bond yields are under renewed pressure as fiscal concerns have become a bigger market driver. Yields in Japan, France and the UK have surged to multi-decade highs. 3Debt-to-GDP ratios, 1970-2030Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, IMF, U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) with data LSEG Datastream, September 2025. Note: The chart shows general government gross debt as a share of GDP for the U.S., France, UK, Italy and Germany. Future estimates are from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Data for Italy only starts from 1988. EstimateCAPITAL AT RISK. INVESTMENTS CAN RISE OR FALL IN VALUE. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, LATIN AMERICA, SELECT COUNTRIES IN EUROPE (SEE THE FULL DISCLAIMER), ISRAEL, SOUTH AFRICA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.