IMF-危地马拉：选定问题（英）

© 2025 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 25/261 GUATEMALA SELECTED ISSUES This paper on Guatemala was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 31, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. September 2025 GUATEMALA SELECTED ISSUES Approved By Western Hemisphere Department Prepared By Carolina Bloch (FAD) and Andrea Paloschi (RES). PUBLIC SPENDING ADEQUACY AND EFFICIENCY IN GUATEMALA: SECTORAL GAPS AND PRIORITIES _______________________________________________________________ 3 A. Introduction and Motivation________________________________________________________ 3 B. Sectoral Adequacy and Efficiency Gaps _____________________________________________ 6 C. Institutional and PFM Considerations for Improving Spending Quality and Efficiency _____________________________________________________________________________ 18 D. Conclusion _______________________________________________________________________ 22 FIGURES 1. Evolution of Social Spending and Public Investment Since 2014, and Comparative SDG Performance _______________________________________________________________________ 4 2. Efficiency Frontiers for Health, Education, Social Assistance, and Public Investment __ 5 3. Trends in Education Spending and Enrollment since 2005 ___________________________ 7 4. Benchmarking of Education Spending Composition and Outcomes _________________ 8 5. Net Attendance Rates in Secondary School __________________________________________ 9 6. Trends in Health Spending and Outcomes since 2005 _____________________________ 10 7. Benchmarking of Health Spending, Financing and Outcomes ______________________ 11 8. Health Budget Composition and PHC Spending per Capita ________________________ 12 9. Benchmarking of Social Assistance Spending, Coverage and Adequacy Against Peers _________________________________________________________________________________ 13 10. Social Assistance Programs Coverage, Adequacy and Targeting __________________ 14 11. Estimated Optimal Public Investment Against GDP Growth and Private Investment ___________________________________________________________________________ 16 12. Benchmarking of Public Investment Spending and Key Related Outcomes _______ 16 13. Basic Infrastructure Coverage and Budget Execution _____________________________ 17 14. Budget Process and Quality of Public Expenditure ________________________________ 22 15. Budget Allocation and Execution, Selected Areas _________________________________ 23 16. Illustrative Public Expenditure Paths for Guatemala Betwe