2025年动力系统研究报告：走向成熟：电动交通转型的下一阶段（英）

Powertrain study 2025 –Coming of ageDr. Jörn Neuhausen, Dr. Philipp Rose, Jan-Hendrik BomkeThe next phase in the eMobility transformationAugust 2025August 2025Strategy&Overcoming current headwinds through innovations and improved economics will determine the next phase in eMobility transformationExecutive summaryAcross the portfolio, multi-energy platforms and PHEVs are regaining importance, but future BEV platforms still lead the way – Differentiated BEV platforms will meet diverse customer needs1Innovations in energy densities, powertrain efficiency, and charging speed improve the ease of daily use of eMobility – in particular, the improvement in charging speed (with up to 400km in 10 minutes) and efficiency gains will further drive diffusion2Battery cells to remain the key cost driver for electric powertrains, heavily affected by raw material prices –currently-available production capacities lead to lower market prices across suppliers and chemistries3While total cost of ownership parity is reached across most segments today, powertrain cost parity will be reached from 2030 –as innovation speeds flatten, the residual values of used BEVs are expected to stabilize4Across regions short- and mid-term forecasts (BEV diffusion demand c. 20% in 2025 and 40% in 2030) are slightly reduced – long-term, transformation with up to 60% diffusion in 2035 is expected to prevail, resulting in 5 TWh battery demand5Successful BEV transformation in Europe requires continued focus on improving performance within short innovation cycles – and commercial competitiveness supported by local and independent battery cell production6BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle, PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric VehiclePowertrain study 2025 – Coming of age2August 2025August 2025Strategy&Table of contents1Future powertrain portfolio2Technology and product development3Cost development4Operational costs5Market diffusion6RecommendationDifferentiated BEV platforms will be the core future powertrain portfolio, with a further increase in charging speedsPowertrain study 2025 – Coming of age3August 2025August 2025Strategy&We expect a stable 2030 powertrain portfolio dominated by BEVs – PHEVs are revitalized as a bridging technologyEvolution of powertrain portfolio (2030)Source: Strategy& analysesPowertrain developments Updated BEV portfolioContinued BEV dominanceDifferentiated powertrain platform:• Cost decreases• Increased energy densities• Fast charging capabilitiesBEVProlongedbridging technologyRevitalized focus(regulatory,infrastructure)PHEV2030 Powertrain portfolio (as of 2023)Passenger car segmentA/BC/DPremium city BEVGreen rocketMass BEVAllrounder BEVE/FRational greenEntry BEV512634Back-up powertrain Remaining platform to address non-BEV markets (e.g., those lacking infrastructure)ICEPassenger car segmentA/BC/DPremium city BEVGreen rocketMass BEVAllrounder BEVE/FRational greenEntry BEV512634Vehicle price classEntryPremiumVolumePowertrain study 2025 – Coming of age4August 2025Strategy