万国邮政联盟-2025年邮政行业状况（英）

STATE OFTHE POSTALSECTOR 2025Postal power reimagined: scale, service and survivalPublished by the Universal Postal Union (UPU) Berne, Switzerland Printed in Switzerland by the printing services of the UPU International Bureau Copyright © 2025 Universal Postal Union All rights reserved Except as otherwise indicated, the copyright in this publication is owned by the Universal Postal Union. Reproduction is authorized for non-commercial purposes, subject to proper acknowledgement of the source. This authorization does not extend to any material identified in this publication as being the copyright of a third party (e.g. through an image credit). Authorization to reproduce such third party materials must be obtained from the copyright holders concerned.TITLE: State of the Postal Sector 2025, Postal power reimagined: scale, service and survivalISBN: 978-92-95116-40-5DESIGN: Sonja Denovski CONTACT: thinktank@upu.intVersion 1Postal power reimagined: scale, service and survivalSTATE OF THE POSTAL SECTOR 2025Table of contentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................9 The path forward ................................................................................................................................................10INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................12Section 1FROM A SEAMLESS NETWORK TO A PATCHWORK OF HIGHWAYS ............................15KEY TAKEAWAYS ................................................................................................................. 16 Systemic transformation of the postal network ...................................................................................17 Why fragmentation matters: four transmission axes .........................................................................18 Political-economy lens: when hubs entrench dependency and when they do not .............19 Empirical core I: volume clusters reveal the scale of fragmentation ...........................................21 Empirical core II: delivery times, reliability and the human cost .................................................. 24 Empirical core III – price clusters, pandemic surcharges and a legacy of fragmentation 27 Synthesis – from patchwork to a distributed postal grid ................................................................ 28 Potential governance architecture: differentiated multilateralism and regionalizing the UPU ............................................................................................................................30 Conclusion – toward a resilient and inclusive global postal economy ......................................31Section 2POSTAL DECOUPLING AND ITS DRIVERS: A LONG-RUN ANALYSIS .......................... 35KEY TAKEAWAYS .................................................................................................................36 Postal sector–G