IMF-阿富汗人口外流：区域宏观经济影响和政策挑战（英）

IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 SEPAfghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez, Li Zeng Under the guidance of Abdullah AlHassan WP/25/176* The authors would like to thank Jeong Dae Lee, Laura Torrent Garcia, and Karim Badr for their contributions at the early stage ofthis work. The authors would also like to thank Jihad Azour, Zeine Zeidane, Asmaa ElGanainy, Antonio Bassanetti, AnnalauraSacco, Anna Ivanova, their colleagues from the Pakistan and Iran teams and UNHCR, and other participants in the Middle East andCentral Asia Department seminar for their support and helpful comments.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/176 IMF Working Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Afghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges Prepared by Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez, Li Zeng * Under the guidance of Abdullah AlHassan Authorized for distribution by Zeine Zeidane September 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Afghanistan has endured decades of war and political turmoil, leading to repeated waves of displacement (refugees and internally displaced persons) and emigration. This paper documents key stylized facts of the Afghan displacement and emigration crisis, assesses its macroeconomic impacts from a regional perspective using the IMF’s FSGM model, and considers policy challenges facing both Afghanistan and host countries (Iran and Pakistan). It underscores the need for a holistic and coordinated approach to achieve a durable solution. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez, Li Zeng. 2025. " Afghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges." IMF Working Paper 25/176. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. JEL Classification Numbers: C6, E2, F2, J6, Keywords: Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, refugees, internally displaced persons, labor migrants Authors’ E-Mail Addresses: RGupta5@imf.org, CKularatne@imf.org, DMuir@imf.org, PRodriguez@imf.org, LZeng@imf.org WORKING PAPERS Afghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges Prepared by Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez, Li Zeng Under the guidance of Abdullah AlHassan IMF WORKING PAPERS Title of WP INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 Contents Introduction .........................................................................