世界银行-保护主义、逃避和家庭福利：来自尼日利亚进口禁令的证据（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11195Protectionism, Evasion and Household WelfareEvidence from Nigeria’s Import BansErhan Artuc Guillermo Falcone Guido Porto Bob RijkersAfrica RegionOffice of the Chief EconomistSeptember 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11195This paper analyzes the welfare impacts of import bans in Nigeria, and how these are shaped by evasion. Bans were not effectively enforced, and contributed to informal trade. The imposition of bans nonetheless increased consumer prices by 5.8% on average. However, price increases are substan-tially attenuated for goods for which trade policy is harder to enforce. Import bans disproportionately hurt the rich: the benefits of evasion are regressive. This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Africa Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at eartuc@worldbank.org, gfalcone1@worldbank.org, guido.porto@depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar, and brijkers@worldbank.org. Protectionism,
Evasion
and
Household
WelfareEvidence
from
Nigeria’s
Import
Bans∗Erhan
ArtucGuillermo
FalconeGuido
PortoBob
RijkersKeywords:
tax
evasion,
mirror
statistics,
trade,
corruption,
exporters,
importers,
tariffs.∗We are grateful to Jakob Engel, Bertine Kamphuis, Arthur Lalik Lagrange, Jonathan William Lain, Gael Raballand, AlexSienaert, Alexander Stojanov, Mohammed Isa Shuaibu and Tara Vishnawath for comments and help accessing the data used in thispaper. We thank Cyril Chalendard and David Issa for co-developing the similarity index. This paper has been partly supported bythe Umbrella Facility for Trade trust fund (financed by the governments of the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and theUnited Kingdom) and the Strategic Research Partnership on Economic Development. We also acknowledge the generous financialsupport from the World Bank research support budget and the Knowledge for Change Program (KCP), a trust funded partnership insupport