Deutsche Bank-China Macro August PMI charts-117567101

T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaT2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on: 01/09/2025 05:25:00 GMTDistributed on: 01/09/2025 05:25:00 GMTDeutsche Bank Research Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. Economics China Macro Date 1 September 2025 August PMI charts China's manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly by 0.1ppt to 49.4 in August. Improvement was mild but board-based, with PMI of exports, output and new orders rising by 0.1ppt, 0.3ppt and 0.1ppt, respectively. Prices PMI continued to ascend on the back of “anti-involution” measures, with ex-factory prices and purchase prices rising by 0.8ppt and 1.8ppts from July. Also affected by the measures, inventory of finished goods PMI dropped for the second consecutive month by 0.6ppt. The services PMI climbed by 0.5ppt to 50.5, boosted by stronger tourism and movie market activity during the summer holidays. In contrast, the construction PMI fell by 1.5ppts to 49.1, renewing the lowest level since 2020, resulting from recent slowdown in investment activities. Selected high-frequency charts: Material prices further rebounded (Figure 10), with the decline of prices of 50 major industrial products narrowing to -6% YoY during August 10-20, compared to the double-digit decline in June and -8% in July. This trend is expected to lift August PPI to -3% YoY from -3.6%. Property market rebounded modestly (Figure 11). Housing sales in 30-major cities fell below 2024 levels in July and early-August but started to catch up since mid-August. It likely resulted from the recent easing in Beijing and Shanghai, as well as some expectation of more easing from the central government level. Beijing and Shanghai announced to ease the purchasing restriction on August 8th and 25th, respectively. Meanwhile, the 9th State Council Plenary Meeting held on August 18th pledged to stabilize the property market, by proactively promoting the urban renovation projects. It is the first time that Premier Li Qiang mentioned property sector in this high-level meeting. Deyun Ou Economist +852-2203-6166 Yi Xiong, Ph.D. Chief Economist +852-2203-6139 1 September 2025 China Macro Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 2 Figure 1: China's August PMIs Source: Deutsche Bank Research, NBS 1 September 2025 China Macro Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 3 PMI Charts: August 2025 Figure 2: Cross-country comparison Figure 3: Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1ppt to 49.4 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Figure 4: Services PMI rose to 50.5 Figure 5: Construction PMI fell to 49.1 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Figure 6: Prices PMI further rebounded Figure 7: Exports PMI declined on a 12mma basis Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver