商业韧性行动手册（英）

Decoding the signals and shocks that shape consumer behaviorTe BusinessResiliencyPlaybook© 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All rights reserved.2© 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All rights reserved.About the authors:Navigating uncertainty with resilienceToday’s business leaders are facing a uniquely challenging moment: Shifting policies, fluctuating consumer sentiment, and economic uncertainty have created an unpredictable environment where day-to-day decision-making—let alone planning for the future—feels overwhelming. In moments like these, most economic outlooks offer broad trends or surface-level forecasts. This one is different. We’re delighted to once again collaborate with Yale economists Martha Gimbel and Ernie Tedeschi to bring you this Business Resiliency Playbook. Taking a deep dive into 50 years of historical US data, they reviewed consumer behavior across major economic shocks—from recessions and stagflation to geopolitical crisis. Their analysis reveals not only how consumers respond in each scenario, but also the key signals that indicate shifts are coming. Making this playbook actionable is our business resiliency framework—a detailed guide that outlines how to interpret these signals, along with specific steps retailers and manufacturers can take to respond to them with agility and confidence. We hope you’ll use it as a strategic compass to guide your planning and position your business for resilience and growth in the months ahead.Courtenay Verret Vice President, Global Thought Leadership, NIQMartha GimbelMartha Gimbel is the Executive Director of The Budget Lab at Yale. She has worked as an advisor and an economist in senior roles across government, the private sector, and philanthropy, including the White House Council of Economic Advisers, the Department of Labor, the Joint Economic Committee on Capitol Hill, Schmidt Futures, and Indeed.com. She is an expert in a range of economic data, including the labor market, consumer spending, inflation, and economic growth, and in how economic and policy dynamics intersect.Ernie TedeschiErnie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at The Budget Lab at Yale and a Visiting Fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy at Georgetown University. He is also a regular Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Until March 2024, he was the Chief Economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). Prior to CEA, Ernie was Managing Director and Head of Fiscal Analysis at Evercore ISI. He has also been an economist at the US Department of the Treasury and a contributor to the New York Times Upshot column.CourtenayVerretCourtenay Verret is Vice President, Global Thought Leadership at NIQ, where she connects data-driven insights with compelling narratives that position the company at the forefront of consumer intelligence. Her work spans critical topics such as AI, innovation, and brand marketing, helping shape strategic conversations. Courtenay plays a key role in amplifying NIQ’s brand auth