2025年中国房地产：要清除中国的住房库存需要什么（第3期）：形成正向反馈循环是关键（英文版）

In light of persistent deflationary pressure and weak demand, we look back at history to learn how the government successfully overcame such challenges in the past. Our case-study on the Shanghai property market back in the 90s provide some insights. Build more supply ahead of demand. In our last edition on this topic, we found that China’s tier-1/2 cities have room to build more housing units in the longer run, bench marking the empirical 1.1-1.15X housing supply ratio (total urban housing stock/urban households) we observed from developed countries. Front loading housing construction in these cities will help revive upstream industries, and coupled with demand stimulus, might eventually lead to a positive feedback loop forming for the broad economy, as well as eventual digestion of the oversupply created from front-loaded supply. We acknowledge that the housing industry and macro backdrop is very different now from that in the late 90s, and the likely positive impact from accelerating housing construction, especially in volume terms, will likely be much smaller than previous cycles. We outline detailed analysis as below: How big is the headroom? 14X/6X of our 2025E new starts estimates in 1.Tier-1/2 cities/nationwide total; 5X/9X of our 2025E construction FAI/total property FAI forecasts. How much of the above headroom might be utilized in order to neutralize 2.(Scenario 1) the housing sector’s impact on GDP or mildly positively contribute to GDP in 2026E (Scenario 2)? 20-30%. How much funding will developers need for Scenario 1 or 2? We calculate 3.Rmb1.4tn-2.8tn liquidity injection might be needed to cover incremental construction FAI and new land purchases; that said, if more demand stimulus comes into effect swiftly, in an ideal case, the market would only need up to Rmb1.1tn. What prospective households might need? Rmb0.2tn-1.0tn subsidies to 4.improve affordability, further mortgage easing and removal of home purchase restriction in Tier-1 cities. Research | Equity Yi Wang, CFA +86(21)2401-8930 | yi.wang@goldmansachs.cn Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company Limited Shi Xu +86(21)2401-8929 | shi.x.xu@goldmansachs.cn Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company Limited Kaiyan Jing +86(21)2411-8092 | kaiyan.jing@goldmansachs.cn Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company LimitedChina Property What would it take to clear China’s housing inventory (No. 3): Forming a positive feedback loop is the key21 August 2025 | 3:43PM CST Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research