世界银行-马拉维经济监测，2025年7月：驾驭不确定性（英）

Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized© 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contribu-tions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.Cover image: “Lost at Sea” by Evelyn ChisambiroCover design, interior design and typesetting: Piotr Ruczynski, London, United KingdomCONTENTSAcknowledgements 6Abbreviations 7Overview8 1 Global and Regional Context 13The global economy faces significant volatility, as heightened policy uncertainty adversely impacts growth prospects 13 2 Recent Economic Developments 16Malawi’s economy remains under significant strain, with decreasing per capita incomes and rising food insecurity 16While Malawi is confronting a host of economic challenges, it has succeeded in improving some human development outcomes 19The private sector struggles from a difficult business climate, a worsening macroeconomy and severe input shortages 19Fiscal challenges persist, amid expenditure overruns and revenue shortfalls 22Malawi remains in debt distress while the pace of borrowing increases, constraining fiscal space and crowding out credit to the private sector 25The current account deficit hit a record high in 2024, as export competitiveness continues to decline 28Inflation remains elevated in the context of high money supply growth 29Financial sector capital, profitability and liquidity positions continue improving, supported by government borrowing at the cost of increased private sector credit 30 3 Medium-Term Economic Outlook 33Key policy priorities include macroeconomic stability, increasing investment and exports, and resilience to shocks 34References 37BOXESBOX 1 For many food-insecure households, borrowing from village banks is a key