2024年在内调外紧的形势下，广东出口将如何演变报告

摘要 本文首先回顾了 2015 年至今广东省出口产品变化情况，发现（1）传统劳动密集型产品占比下降，高新技术产品比例持续增加；（2）中间品出口占比持续扩大，且加工设备类和元器件类增长较快。剖析引起上述结构变化的原因，本文认为与三方面因素有关：（1）市场自发调节因素，土地、劳动力、技术等要素禀赋变化引起产业结构调整；（2）内部政策干预因素，政府产业政策影响不同产业进入与退出决策；（3）国外需求变动因素，发达国家通过贸易限制有意将需求从中国转向其他国家，外贸企业将加工组装环节迁到东南亚等新兴市场以避开发达国家贸易限制，同时就近满足新兴市场需求。 上述因素影响下，出口产品结构变化是必然趋势，但需关注潜在的风险，包括（1）传统产业迁出和加工组装环节迁出影响民间实体投资积极性、社会就业和供应链安全；（2）新兴产业扎堆建设造成资源浪费和恶性竞争。而且，海外贸易政策日益收紧也会带来新的挑战：（1）企业转口通道受阻，仅靠加工组装环节迁出可能无法应对贸易限制，中间品生产环节迁出进程或将加快；（2）出海产业链环节的扩展可能降低本土出口对经济增长的贡献。为应对这些风险和挑战，同时寻找新的发展机遇，促进广东出口和广东经济的良性增长，本文提出三方面的思路。 __________________________________________________________ 北大汇丰智库经济组（撰稿人：岑维、王若林） 成稿时间：2024 年 12 月 14 日| 总第 116 期 | 2023-2024 学年第 16 期 联系人：程云（0755-26032270，chengyun@phbs.pku.edu.cn） Abstract This paper first reviews the changes in Guangdong's export products in the past decade, and finds that (1) the proportion of traditional labor-intensive products has declined, while the high-tech products proportion has continued to increase; (2) the proportion of intermediate products exports has continued to expand, especially for the processing equipment and components. Further analyzing the reasons for the above structural changes, this paper concludes the following influencing factors: (1) Changes in factor endowments like labor and technology lead to industrial structure adjustment. (2) Industrial policies made by government cause firms to entry or exit. (3) Trade restrictions from developed countries push enterprises to seek opportunities by taking detours from other emerging economies like Southeast Asia. Under the influence of the above factors, the change in export product structure is an inevitable trend, but potential risks need to be considered, including (1) Traditional industries or certain processing and assembly procedures moving out of Guangdong, may cause harm to the enthusiasm of private firms, social employment, and supply chain security; (2) Increasing resources flood into emerging industries resulted in resource waste and vicious competition. Moreover, the tightening of overseas trade policies also bring new challenges: (1) the transit channels for enterprises will be blocked, only by moving processing and assembly procedures outside Guangdong cannot cope with trade restrictions. The relocation of intermediate production procedures may accelerate; (2) More and more industrial chain links moving out of Guangdong may reduce the contribution of exports to local economic growth. Finally, this article proposes three solutions to deal with the above risks and challenges, and seek new opportunities, so as to promote the healthy development of Guangdong's exports and economy. 在内调外紧的形势下，广东出口将如何演变？ 0 一、广东省近十年出口产品结构变化的特点 根据海关总署公布的 2015 年以来的出口数据，我们综合海关出口商品参数表和 8 位 HS 编码下的近 9000 种商品1，整理了广东省 44 类主要出口商品的详细数据，包括出口规模和占比的变化趋势（图 1 和图 2），这 44 类产品占总出口的比例约在 65%左右，基本囊括了广东省主要产业种类。 图 1 2015-2023 年广东主要出口商品规模（亿元） 数据来源：海关总署，北大汇丰智库 注：海关总署在线查询平台数据起自 2015 年，主要产品出口规模在图上以数据标签呈现 2340240022912010186