巴德学院利维经济研究所-气温上升，产量下降：气候冲击对巴勒斯坦橄榄油生产的影响（英）

Working Paper No. 1089 Rising Temperatures, Falling Yields: The Effect of Climate Shocks on Olive Oil Production in Palestine by Yousuf Daas Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan Sameh Hallaq Al-Quds Bard College-Economics Program, Al-Quds University, Jerusalem, Palestine Kenichi Kashiwagi Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan. and Keiichi Ogawa Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan August 2025 Correspondence author: Sameh Hallaq, email: shallaq@staff.alquds.edu The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research, it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad. Levy Economics Institute P.O. Box 5000 Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000 http://www.levyinstitute.org Copyright © Levy Economics Institute 2025 All rights reserved ISSN 1547-366X 1 ABSTRACT This study investigates the effect of climate shocks on olive oil production in Palestine, a region acutely vulnerable to both environmental change and political instability. We estimate the influences of temperature and rainfall fluctuations on four key outcomes: the olive-to-oil yield ratio, extracted oil quantity, cultivated olive volume, and olive oil prices. Our findings reveal that higher maximum temperatures significantly reduce both olive yields and oil output, while an increase in minimum temperatures exerts a positive effect. Increased rainfall enhances oil yield and production but simultaneously depresses prices through supply expansion. Results are robust to fixed-effect specifications and non-linear models, and show strong regional heterogeneity. Southern districts are particularly sensitive to rainfall variability and high temperatures. These findings highlight the economic risks of climate shocks to Palestinian olive oil producers and demonstrate the urgent need for adaptive strategies that are regionally tailored and climate resilient. KEYWORDS: Climate Change and Economic Policy, Olive Oil, Agricultural Shocks, Palestine JEL CODES: Q54, Q12, O13, N55 2 1. INTRODUCTION Climate change poses a challenge to agricultural systems worldwide, with particularly acute impacts in regions dependent on climate-sensitive crops. Olive oil production, a fundament of Mediterranean agriculture, has been identified as particularly vulnerable (Fraga et al. 2020). The Mediterranean basin, responsible for over 90 percent of global olive oil product