美联储-统一的人口与劳动力统计数据（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Harmonized Population and Labor Force StatisticsJohn Coglianese, Seth Murray, and Christopher J. Nekarda2025-057Please cite this paper as:Coglianese,John,SethMurray,andChristopherJ.Nekarda(2025).“Harmo-nized Population and Labor Force Statistics,” Finance and Economics Discussion Se-ries 2025-057.Washington:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.057.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.Harmonized Population and Labor Force Statistics*John Coglianese†, Seth Murray‡, and Christopher J. Nekarda§Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemJuly 2025AbstractThe official labor force statistics often exhibit discontinuities in Jan-uary, when updated population estimates are incorporated into theCurrent Population Survey (CPS) for the current year but are not re-vised backward through history. We construct harmonized popula-tion estimates spanning five decades and produce new weights for theCPS microdata that are benchmarked to these estimates. Using theseweights, we estimate harmonized labor force statistics that reflect thelatest available information about the population and its character-istics. The harmonized labor force series are free from the disconti-nuities in the historical data and show a notably larger labor forceshortfall in the post-pandemic period.JEL codes: C8, E24Keywords: population, labor force, employment, unemployment, im-migration, CPS*The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicateconcurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors of the Fed-eral Reserve System. We thank Stephanie Aaronson, Jed Kolko, and John Stevens for help-ful discussions and comments on earlier drafts and Chris Karlsten for superb editorial assis-tance. We are especially grateful to Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics staff forproviding helpful comments and discussions and detailed answers to our questions.†ORCID: 0009-0002-7660-8306. Email: john.m.coglianese@frb.gov.‡ORCID: 0000-0002-7315-2895. Email: seth.m.murray@frb.gov.§ORCID: 0000-0002-2301-2720. Email: christopher.j.nekarda@frb.gov.1. IntroductionThe Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes timely statistics about theU.S. labor market that receive wide attention each month. Many of theseindicators, including the unemployment rate and the labor force participa-tion rate (LFPR), are derived from the