国会预算办公室-公法的分配效应119-21（英）

www.cbo.gov CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Phillip L. Swagel, Director U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515 August 11, 2025 Honorable Brendan F. Boyle Ranking Member Committee on the Budget U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Honorable Hakeem Jeffries Democratic Leader U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Honorable Jeff Merkley Honorable Chuck Schumer Ranking Member Democratic Leader Committee on the Budget United States Senate United States Senate Washington, DC 20510 Washington, DC 20510 Re: Distributional Effects of Public Law 119-21 Dear Ranking Member Boyle, Leader Jeffries, Ranking Member Merkley, and Leader Schumer: This letter responds to your request for an analysis of the distributional effects of Public Law 119-21, an act to provide for reconciliation pursuant to title II of H. Con. Res. 14, relative to the Congressional Budget Office’s January 2025 baseline projections. It builds on analysis provided in the agency’s letter dated June 12, 2025.1 1 Congressional Budget Office, letter to the Honorable Brendan F. Boyle and the Honorable Hakeem Jeffries regarding the distributional effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (June 12, 2025), www.cbo.gov/publication/61387. Honorable Brendan F. Boyle, Honorable Hakeem Jeffries, Honorable Jeff Merkley, and Honorable Chuck Schumer Page 2 CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) recently estimated the budgetary effects of P.L. 119-21.2 On the basis of those estimates, CBO allocated the effects on revenues and spending to households. The agency also allocated to households the estimated effects of states’ responses to changes to health programs—primarily Medicaid—and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).3 In CBO’s January 2025 baseline projections, households at the top of the income distribution receive significantly more income than households at the bottom. That pattern is consistent with recent history. Both means-tested transfers and federal taxes are progressive—that is, low-income households receive a larger share of their income as means-tested transfers than high-income households do, and high-income households pay a larger share of their income in federal taxes than low-income households do. (Means-tested transfers are cash payments or in-kind benefits from federal, state, or local governments that are typically designed to help individuals and families who meet a test of need on the basis of income and assets.) Because of that progressivity, income after transfers and taxes is less skewed toward households at the top of the distribution than income before transfers and taxes. CBO estimates that as result of P.L. 119-21, U.S. households, on average, will see an increase in the resources available to them over the 2026–2034 period. The changes in resources will not be evenly distributed among households. The agency estimates that, in general, resources will decrease for households toward the bottom o