巴德学院利维经济研究所-外债可持续性和货币等级模型（英）

Working Paper No. 1087A Model of External Debt Sustainability and Monetary Hierarchy byNicolás M. Burotto*Universidad Andrés BelloJuly 2025I would like to thank my advisors, Luiz Fernando de Paula and Karsten Köhler, for their guidance, valuable suggestions, support and inspiration, as well as Alberto Botta (discussant), Gilberto Lima, Ricardo Summa and Giuliano Yajima for their detailed and insightful comments. This paper has also benefited from discussions and feedback from Rolando Gárciga Otero on impulse-response shocks, José Luis Oreiro for suggesting a holistic approach to debt analysis, and Iván Weigandi on interest rates. I would also like to thank the participants in the 2020 IX Research Conference at IE-UFRJ, the 2023 YSI Conference on Debt Sustainability at Boston University Global Development Policy Center, the 2024 Brownbag Sessions at Leeds University Business School, and the 2024 15th Post-Keynesian Economic Society Ph.D. Conference at the University of Greenwich. This research and my Ph.D. thesis at UFRJ were supported by CNPq, the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, and CAPES, the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel, Brazil.*School of Economics and Business, Universidad Andrés Bello, Santiago de Chile, nburottor@hotmail.comThe Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals.Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan,independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship andeconomic research, it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economicproblems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad.Levy Economics Institute P.O. Box 5000Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000http://www.levyinstitute.orgCopyright © Levy Economics Institute 2025 All rights reservedISSN 1547-366XABSTRACTI develop a dynamic macroeconomic model of a small open economy to identify two key vulnerabilities that prevent emerging markets from fully integrating into global markets: high financial integration costs and their low position in the international monetary hierarchy. These vulnerabilities make them susceptible to financial traps, jeopardize debt sustainability, and increase volatility. I show that the weak response of capital flows to interest rates further limits the ability of monetary policy to stabilize the system. As a result, these economies have restricted policy options and often resort to mimicking external monetary policy strategies in times of financial distress.KEYWORDS: external debt sustainability; currency hierarchy; financial trap; balance of payments con-straint; subordinated integration.JEL CODES: E12, E32, E44, F34.11. INTRODUCTIONIn recent years, emer