美联储7月议息会议点评报告：7月决议偏鹰，9月降息窗口还在吗？

www.chinastock.com.cn 駩⯟煝疵䫟⼴ 騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻 7 劓⬑駖⢟멚9 劓ꮴ䛉瘎⺛ꂖ㐃⻜ 耘臅⥈ 7 劓駖䛉⚷駖掾駬䫟⼴ 2025 䌑 07 劓 31 傽 呦䖦間掾 l  劓⯈椚⬑駖 劓  傽耘臅⥈㵌䉘缰䭦臅ꊝ㕈ꓭ⯈椚潨吙ⶔꭊ㐃 .%蔸 .%┯⺈睋⻉䉗㐙册ꇁ뀔劻նꂘ儱⪼ꂞ缩睘◩姍缰䭦⯈椚┯Ⲙն l 假ꭑ⹿䉘⚷氮◟  劓冩⢷ꮴ䛉䉂錻䉗㐙⩪⮕뀔劻䉗㐙臔撌┞儱耘臅⥈槏◜劲╚눢姍⮃⻓═⻐佻䭦ꮴ䛉溸⹹㸉玭◝儱全䊛랄㥓㸸㐃假ꭑ⹿䉘劲┪溸銩䘒㕈騫ն⯈椚⯼冎耘臅⥈㹀绪㹧  劓⯈椚⢳⮃⚈✇⬑㴼㸞㐃┬姍駖䛉劲駖⯼㜼⹨脞劔⪸缋嵴溸⟥䛉ն⻓㐃㹧偃阌耘臅⥈儱⻲劲⦑ꓭ鄌䉗㐙뀔劻溸ꊙ呤㐃  劓┬騫臅ꊝ㕈ꓭ⯈椚ꂖ╬僓ꁩ僃նꄽ芤⯼冎ꄽ芤椚汻둛◟潨吙ն 劓⚌呦䖦 PCE ⺪茤⻎嬠┪ⶬ .%⪸瓭婞㐃䲀둛┞◲ガ⿣⚃呬ꪍ劻ꄽ芤뀔劻┱ %┞蔺ն뀔駉ꄽ芤俚䰕㸞⺇⯒剳㝃⪸瓭䔕⿱ն⪸瓭䔕⿱⯀偃杅劫册⪸瓭㸉ꄽ芤溸䔕⿱♇撬㝛僃ն⯼䨿澚⯒溸☹☹儱⪸瓭ꄽ芤溸䐷盛脯䉂뀔駉⻑缩⹿䉘溸ꄽ芤俚䰕㸞✅⻓⮃剳㝃溸⪸瓭䔕⿱ն㝕㝃俚㸉劔侞⪸瓭瓭椚溸뀔⛓⺈┯㝕⻉槏䲀嵱⪸瓭㸉ꄽ芤溸䔕⿱儱焝冩溸呦䖦ꄽ芤╚劔 %䧶 %缺蔦⪸瓭ն缋嵴⯼冎㹻硅㲾㐃┯燛㴼䙎⛰缋嵴❹撬甯㎷ն䭰吙兇獏缋嵴㙨ꪍ侒罏┯駌╬㝕脯耘岻呿杅⯋⯢跳缋嵴ն l 㸉㝕㴵ガ⿣溸䔕⿱묛ꓭ耘臅⥈  劓缰甯⯈椚랄㥓㸸点騫┯㵀뀔駦 劓ꮴ䛉䉗㐙㶄卄뀔劻ꮴ廛ն点Ⲧ溸◝㳌䍳 GDP 俚䰕⯸䒙묛ꓭ焝劻ꉍꯟ⼕䑜ⲇ⛰㐃㐌罔箄䑳┱侓瞬┯燛㴼䙎芻冎┬ꓭ⚃♇劔䩬䍐ն⪢槊㝠鉿♇缰䭦묛ꓭꏕ翞ꓭ⚃⼯焝⸐ꪍ临呬㹾նⸯ岓㹻硅耘臅⥈⢟멚皒㐙䳀ⶬ鄌鰑䧯续뀔劻㸉岓⚃卐䧯ꭊ䱹⸐⯜⛰䓝⯼岓䉗全绻鿛⻔㐌罔❵缕䪑Ⲙն耘㎼Ⲏ║㸉➷⯜鍧䑜⹿䉗㐙㸉ⸯ岓❵䍎侅罥溸䬎䗣佻临焝劻岓⚃ն⻑缩蝄 OPEC+㙨分⺖Ⲏ괛寛㎈訒岓⚃䧶긖╤㎈騫ն l 㸉⡺⯟䉗㐙溸䔕⿱耘⡺ 劓 FOMC ⯼䉗㐙䉂ꌄ⮕駉⪝耘臅⥈䌑⫐鿛⻔㶄卄뀔劻䲀Ⲙ耘⡺侅漩椚┬鉿ն⛰랄㥓㸸劲⻑点騫ꄽ芤꼐䙎⹴⪸瓭┪鉿낊ꯟ♥먧嵟뀔劻焝劻⟶婞侅漩椚剱绻鱶䌐䘒ⲹ罏⾕ն╚⡺㹻硅╚耘⯈䈽⠲䭨⯜绢㜾鰑嵤⪝⛰鯴䉕侓瞬䐥缩㶄卄㕈騫⺖Ⲏ璺卋鯯侓訒㵄뀔劻╚⡺侅漩椚╚劻♇⪾┬鉿疿ꭊն l 㸉寤椚䉗㐙溸䔕⿱耘⩧䭰俚⯈椚⬑駖⻑耘⩧䭰俚ꮕ嫙䙎⹹䒧⺇耘臅⥈멚嵟皒㐙⹴点Ⲧ GDP 佻临ն⛰┪鉿Ⲙ茤鱶䒙FOMC ⫐ꌄ⻓⮕婤յ耘㎼⫐괛茴䒙ꄽ芤穙䙎┱㙨ꪍ侒罏烾澃ⲎⰦն긌耘鯴䉕姚⩧ⶔ缋嵴鱪뀔劻佻临姚⩧傽⩧⺇侓瞬婞䊬뀔劻䳀䮵ն l 㸉勶漩䉗㐙溸䔕⿱耘艧 劓 FOMC 劲駖轇睋⻉뀔劻⛰罼▌僻燛㶄卄䭰䑜蔺耘艧焝劻䝠缦㎈訒┩㝕䭰俚氮巹鿛鳰ն䉗㐙㸉  劓ꮴ䛉뀔劻ꁉꮪꮴ廛 劓嵤Ⲙ䙎幜㳌⹴侓瞬間㷌劻䧶♥낊ꯟ⢟㟲㎈騫ն㎃㳌䍳蝄㹧╃廛⾕侒罏յ呦䖦ꄽ芤㎈訒⹴侓瞬鴤䔴僻冏耘艧劔労ꁹ⹹䒧ն艧㹻硅둛耘⯈䈽䫆⯜鰑ꓭ侊ㄌ⛰ⷂ⻔鰑ꓭ㝕䋀⬥嵤⪝劔労佻临艧նA 艧侓瞬㸍⻔╬䉗㐙瞣朤┪鉿Ⲙ茤նꏕ翞┪䐮駖⪸峜⹹⫐ⷳ侓瞬訒㐌յ璇䪫䧯ꪍյ⫯䈰升㑊둛艧䛉鰑分⹴侓瞬뎧Ⲙ┬溸㝕巆鰆뀖意ն l 낊ꯟ䳀獏嶯㜾ꮴ䛉┯燛㴼낊ꯟ杅劫册侓瞬┯燛㴼낊ꯟ㐌罔㎌筷䪑Ⲙ낊ꯟ䉗㐙䝠缦┯甯㴼낊ꯟ㎼⫐侓瞬侞卸┯燛㴼낊ꯟն ⮕卥䉞 匤鱪 (010-8092-7696 *yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⮕卥䉞溫駘罒焺S 潸⪸煝疵 2025-07-307 劓侓岖㹾⚷駖㸉 A 艧䉗㐙溸䫌鰑䭰䑜 2025-07-22⪫Ⳬ㕈ꓭ◝㳌䍳䭦♎劔〘◲澚掾 2025-07-16A 艧낊呬鿛䰄溸⸉⺮㜩漽┱㎈嵱⮕卥 2025-07-15╚㝠㓻䉗䈰✑⚷駖⯈㟲 A 艧䉗㐙〘◲升㑊 2025-06-262025 䌑㝕稝鰑分╚劻䫌鰑㺥労뎣⺈騳ⲹ 2025-06-212025 䌑艧╚劻䫌鰑㺥労僓瓌┿儅閒勨脯✑ 2025-06-202025 䌑 A 艧╚劻䫌鰑㺥労瞣㕈鉿甯ꓨ㗛뮿假 2025-06-10甯㴼䉕嚤䗼艧䫌鰑㺥労 2025-05-28┪䉗⪫⺶䌔鯺ꓨ缀ꁹ匡〘◲假⺈ 2025-05-21⛽⯈椚僓♣姚嵌鰑分ꏕ翞⼅獏 2025-05-12⪸瓭罏⾕⟥⺵┬〘◲升㑊劔労⺇漩 2025-05-07⪸ꨴ僓ꭊ虹掾溸⹿䉘⚷┞䴗㲳ꓭ鄌侓瞬甯䉗㐙甯뀔劻 2025-05-05䌑䫟⾕┞㳌䫟劔〘◲☗掾 2025-05-04◩┞⢏劻◜⚂唯槏⹴䉗㐙㺥労 2025-04-25䭦缩甯㴼⾕嵛鳢鰑续䉗㐙臔撌〘◲做긖4 劓╚㝠侓岖㹾⚷駖闌騣 騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻ն 1 潨䓡 Catalog ┞յ 耘臅⥈ 7 劓駖䛉⚷駖 .......................................................................................................................  ┞ ⯈椚⬑駖 .......................................................................................................................................  ◝ 假ꭑ⹿䉘⚷ ....................................................................................................................................  ◝յ 㸉╭锢㝕稝鰑☋溸䔕⿱ .....................................................................................................................  ┞ ꂀ劻俚䰕 .......................................................................................................................................  ◝ ガ⿣䉗㐙 .......................................................................................................................................  ┩ ⡺⯟䉗㐙 .........................................................................................