全球科技：中国的自动驾驶出租车市场——商业化之路

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.EQUITY RESEARCH | May 6, 2025 | 6:21AM HKTWith 500,000 Robotaxis expected to be operating across 10+ cities in China by 2030, we believe the question is no longer if L4 autonomous technology is ready, but one of how companies will commercialize the rapid pace of autonomous development. We see Robotaxis as one of the earliest and most visible avenues to commercialization of the autonomous technology, with growing consumer acceptance across large Tier 1 cities, a tightening supply of human drivers as the fleets mature and drivers retire, and with Government and insurance industry as enablers to support growth. We see both a sizeable TAM opportunity ahead – US$47bn by 2035, as well as a path to profitability, modelling positive gross margins in early 2026 for Tier 1 cities. Key factors to watch: Decreasing costs of hardware and algorithms: Our forecast for China’s Robotaxi TAM of $47bn by 2035E vs. 1$54mn in 2025 is driven by decreasing costs of hardware and algorithms and lowering operating costs for fleet owners. The form factor is a swing factor: Robotaxis have the potential to transform productivity of time spent in cars, turning vehicles into entertainment hubs or private workspace, gains that may significantly increase consumer demand. Supportive Government policies/licensing, and the development of insurance for the industry are both needed to support growth. Accident rates remain a crucial swing factor for expanding customer acceptance and reputation risk. Unit economics turning profitable, encouraging more suppliers: By 2035E, we expect revenues per Robotaxi 2in Tier-1 cities to reach $31,000, higher than current ride hailing vehicles, due to longer operating hours and efficient route planning. We model positive gross margin at the vehicle level by 2026E/2031E/2034E in T1/ T2/ other cities. Allen Chang +852 2978-2930allen.k.chang@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681verena.jeng@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Mark Delaney, CFA +1(212)357-0535mark.delaney@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCRonald Keung, CFA +852-2978-0856ronald.keung@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Global Technology Robotaxi China’s Robotaxi market - the road to commercializationNote: The following is a redacted version of the original report published 6 May 2025 [34 pgs]. Xuan Zhang +852-2978-1478xuan.zhang@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Allen Chang +852-2978-2930allen.