2025年下半年全球新能源车展望-07-新能源

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。 This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business. The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice to anyone. CITIC Futures will not consider relevant personnel as customers due to their attention, receipt, or reading of this report. Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025-07-01 Global EV Market Midyear Outlook 2025 年下半年全球新能源车展望 Abstract 摘要 Global EV sales volume expectations are revised downward, and the situations in Europe and the U.S. may diverge. From January to May 2025, China's sales basically met expectations; European sales maintain steady growth from a low base; the U.S. faces relatively high policy fluctuation risks, and the penetration rate remains weak. Looking ahead, China's "trade-in" policy will continue to underpin consumption, but with the industry opposing unhealthy competition and strictly controlling credit terms, automakers may be cautious. Europe is expected to cancel tax incentives for corporate fuel vehicles by the end of the year, and the EV market may see a marginal recovery from a low base. In the U.S., trade policy disturbances affect automobile manufacturing costs and sales pace, and with high economic uncertainty, sales are still facing downward pressure. Therefore, the 2025 global EV sales volume is slightly revised down to 19.56 million units (a YoY growth of 16%), with the corresponding power battery production reaching 1,555 GWh (a YoY growth of 26%) and the corresponding lithium carbonate demand at approximately 990,000 tons. Risks: 1) The implementation effect of policies is not as expected 2) Escalated trade restrictions. 全球销量预期下修，欧美景气或有所分化。2025 年 1-5 月中国销量基本符合预期；欧洲低基数下维持平稳增长；美国政策波动风险较大，渗透率维持弱势。展望未来，中国市场以旧换新政策持续托底消费，但行业反内卷且严控账期下，主机厂或谨慎；欧洲预计于年底取消企业燃油车税收优惠，在低基数下新能源车或边际复苏；美国贸易政策扰动汽车制造成本和销售节奏，且经济不确定性大，销量难言乐观。 因此，小幅下修 2025 年全球新能源车销量至 1956 万辆（同比增长 16%），相应动力电池产量达 1555GWh（同比增长 26%），相应碳酸锂需求约 99 万吨。 风险因素：1）政策落地效果不及预期；2）外部贸易限制升级； 张默涵 Zhang Mohan 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3097187 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0020317 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com CITIC Futures International Research 中信期货国际化研究 2 Content 目录 1. Development Trends in China 中国发展趋势 .................................................................. 4 1.1 Review 回顾 .......................................................................................................................................................4 1.2 Outlook 展望 .......................................................................................................................................................6 2. Development Trends in the Europe and U.S.