国际清算银行-通货膨胀激增后的家庭看法和预期：调查证据（英）

BIS Bulletin No 104 Household perceptions and expectations in the wake of the inflation surge: survey evidence Fiorella De Fiore, Damiano Sandri and James Yetman 16 June 2025 BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. The authors are grateful to IPSOS and Tirupam Goel for sharing the data on household sentiment, Cecilia Franco, Rudraksh Kansal and Byeungchun Kwon for research assistance, and to Nicola Faessler for administrative support. The editor of the BIS Bulletin series is Hyun Song Shin. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN: 2708-0420 (online) ISBN: 978-92-9259-866-2 (online) BIS Bulletin 1 Fiorella De FioreFiorella.DeFiore@bis.orgDamiano SandriDamiano.Sandri@bis.orgJames Yetman James.Yetman@bis.orgs Household perceptions and expectations in the wake of the inflation surge: survey evidence Key takeaways • A novel international survey across 29 advanced and emerging market economies reveals that household inflation expectations remain elevated, despite inflation rates approaching targets. • Perceptions of significant price hikes post-pandemic tend to feed into higher household inflation expectations, pointing to the risk of a lasting impact of temporary inflation bursts. • Households with greater knowledge of central banks and their price stability mandates report lower inflation expectations. Therefore, central bank communications can help improve the public’s understanding of central banks and foster the anchoring of inflation expectations. Introduction In an era of heightened economic uncertainty and growing polarisation, central banks face mounting challenges in preserving public trust and confidence. Since the surge in inflation beginning in 2021, household dissatisfaction with the economy has intensified despite central banks’ success in returning inflation close to targets. Significant price hikes accumulating over a prolonged period raise the cost of salient items and risk shaping households’ views about inflation dynamics. Achieving alignment between these views and central bank inflation targets remains an evolving challenge – one that underscores the importance of innovative approaches to central bank communications. Heightened discontent among households amplifies the pressure on central banks to clearly communicate their policies and achievements. This is a complex task. Whereas financial market participants are typically attuned to central bank messaging, reaching households and influencing their perceptions of inflation and other economic