美股-制药行业-2020年美国制药业展望：各大石油公司的复苏前景如何？

1See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. North America Equity ResearchDecember 2019PharmaceuticalsChris Schott, CFA AC(1-212) 622-5676christopher.t.schott@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC2020 US Pharma OutlookRecovery Ahead For The Majors?Christopher Neyor (1-212) 622-0334christopher.z.neyor@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCEkaterina Knyazkova(1-212) 622-9576Ekaterina.v.knyazkova@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCXiling Chen(1-212) 622-0364Xiling.chen@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC2Overall PositioningMajor PharmaWe see an ongoing new product cycle translating into an upward bias to our near- andlong-term estimatesPricing concerns remain a key focus point of discussion on the group but we seecommercialpricingdynamicsalreadywellreflectedinour/Streetestimatesandgovernment reform appears manageableAdmittedly, the 2020 Presidential Election season rhetoric remains a wild cardOur recommendations are skewed towards names with the longest runways for EPSgrowth (LLY, MRK) or those trading at a steep discount to peers (BMY)Favorite ideas: LLY, MRK, BMYSpec PharmaWe are marginally less bearish on the group relative to 2018/2019 with earnings havinglikely bottomed for most names and opioid liabilities increasingly reflected in valuation.However, with leverage still elevated and growth uninspiring, we still do not see acompelling reason to broadly own the group.Favorite ideas: CHRS, MYL. Least favorite names: ENDP, AMRX, MNK, TEVAAnimal HealthMost attractive fundamentals (and highest valuations) in our coverage, but we continue tosee the potential for top- and bottom-line beats for both ZTS and ELAN. Both areparticularly interesting names on any broader market pullback.Favorite ideas: ZTS, ELAN3Major Pharmaceuticals: Cheap enough to look beyond pricing overhangs? We think so 4US Major Pharma: PositioningWe are constructive on US Major Pharma with solid core product and new launch trendssupporting ~4% volume-driven topline growthWe see relatively healthy growth for the group over the next 5-7 years with limitedpatent expirations through 2026. We are forecasting a ~4% sales/~9% EPS 5yr CAGRAn ongoing new product cycle represents a potential upside driver to our near- andlong-term estimatesPricing concerns remain a key controversy but we see commercial pricing dynamicswell reflected in JPM / Street estimates while near-term government reform appearsto be more bark than biteBeyond strong organic growth, we see major pharma companies with ample balancesheet capacity for additional bolt-on acquisitions, share repos and divid