IMF-太平洋岛国的增长战略和多样化（英）

Growth Strategies and Diversification in the Pacific Islands Countries Gabriela Cugat WP/25/111 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 JUN * The author would like to thank To-Nhu Dao for assistance with the UN value added data, Mouhamadou Sy for sharing data onprogress towards Sustainable Development Goals, and Rafael Machado Parente, Marshall Mills, Manuel Rosales Torres, TahsinSaadi Sedik, Todd Schneider, Nikola Spatafora, Petia Topalova, and Masafumi Yabara for useful comments and discussions. Thispaper is part of a research project on “Macroeconomic policy in low-income countries” supported by the U.K.’s Foreign,Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and “Macroeconomic research on climate change and emerging risks in Asia”supported by the Government of Korea. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF,its Executive Board, its management, or the supporting partners. All errors remain ours.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/111IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department and Research Department Growth Strategies and Diversification in the Pacific Islands Countries Prepared by Gabriela Cugat* Authorized for distribution by Alaisdar Scott and Petia Topalova June 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: We examine growth strategies for the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) focusing on the role of tourism and diversification. First, we quantify the contribution of tourism to growth using panel regressions and we compute how much additional tourism would be needed for PICs to sustain comparators’ growth rates. Given the sizable scaling ups in tourism required, we consider the benefits of an alternative growth strategy based on diversification. We identify diversification episodes in the PICs and quantify their benefits using the synthetic control method. Such episodes have had mixed results for PICs. Finally, we outline a framework for designing growth strategies in the PICs, based on diagnosing the binding constraints to their economic expansion and working around these limitations. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Cugat, Gabriela. 2025. “Growth Strategies and Diversification in the Pacific Islands Countries.” IMF Working Paper. JEL Classification Numbers: O40, O56 Keywords: Tourism; diversification; growth; Pacific Islands countries Author’s E-Mail Address: gcugat@imf.org IMF WORKING PAPERS Growth Strategies and Diversification in the Pacific Islands Countries INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FU