英文【Bernstein】全球视频游戏：2025年游戏行业现状-对全球行业趋势的深度剖析

9 June 2025Global Video GamingGlobal Video Gaming: The State of Play, 2025 - a deep dive onglobal industry trendsRobin Zhu+852 2123 2659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.comMark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.comFiroz Valliji, CFA+1 917 344 8316firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.comDavid Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.comMin-Joo Kang+852 2123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.comCharlie Peng+81 3 6777 6993charlie.peng@bernsteinsg.comCharles Gou+852 2123 2618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.comShelly Tang, CFA+1 917 344 8342shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.comOur annual top-down look at video gaming. This note serves as our annual deep diveon the global video gaming industry from a top-down perspective. While we typically arguevideo gaming assets are best analysed bottom-up, there is value too in maintaining someperspective of the broader industry. We also zoom in on some key debates in the industry.We estimate US$205bn of industry revenue in 2024, +4.7% in 2025. We’ve updatedour global video gaming model, incorporating bottom-up estimates by platform and byregion. We estimate global video gaming industry revenues reached US$205bn in 2024,2.7% lower year on year. For 2025 we’ve modelled 4.7% growth to US$215bn, assuminga strong Switch 2 launch, Playstation returning to first-party game publishing, and modestmobile gaming growth. In Q1 2025, our bottom-up tracker pointed to 5.4% growth inaggregate revenues across a group of 26 listed video gaming companies.The industry is taking price. Nintendo’s decision to price Mario Kart World at $80predictably caused online controversy, which resulted in… huge demand for the Mario KartWorld bundle. Microsoft followed suit shortly after, raising game prices, and it’s probably amatter of time that Playstation and other developers follows suite. In our view, these movesare long overdue for an industry where pricing has fallen behind not just inflation and otherforms of entertainment, but also monetisation levels in live service games. The implicationsare bullish for both platform owners and content creators.Xbox is dead, long live Xbox? Microsoft raised Xbox hardware prices by $100 in earlyMay, which is unlikely to help sales when Xbox only occupy c. 10% console hardwareshare outside the US. A sub-scale installed base means most games struggle to sell largevolumes on Xbox. This and the $69bn Activision acquisition likely pushed Microsoft towardsthird-party publishing. Microsoft Gaming will do fine as a third-party publisher, and operatorof subscription and cloud gaming businesses. Meanwhile a console hardware market withtwo main players should benefit both Sony and Nintendo.Apple vs. video gaming — changes are afoot. We consider the recent US court decisionto disallow Apple from charging a take rate on off-platform monetisation a significantand underappreciated shift in the industry. We don’t doubt Apple will try to drag the casethrough the appeals courts, but video gaming developers we speak with are alreadydiscussi