兰德-谁能资助未来的人工智能发展？（英）

EDWARD PARKER, BENJAMIN M. MILLER, COLIN LEVAUNTWho Could Fund Future Artificial Intelligence Development?Expert InsightsPERSPECTIVE ON A TIMELY POLICY ISSUEMay 2025For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/PEA3701-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/about/publishing/permissions. iii About This Paper Opinions vary on the training costs and potential abilities of future artificial intelligence (AI) foundation models. Some stakeholders suggest that world-changing returns to productivity and well-being—along with significant first-mover advantages—can be unlocked if national and global resources can be coordinated to support massive financial investments. Others argue that potential capabilities are overhyped or that the private market is otherwise fully capable of marshalling requisite resources, and thus government subsidization is unwarranted. Rather than planting another flag in the debate regarding AI’s uncertain future costs and capabilities, we seek to lay out the scope of plausibly imaginable futures, focusing on the question “Who could p