牛津经济研究院-迈向全球碳定价体系（英）

BY THANG NGUYEN-QUOC, PH.D. AND THENG THENG TAN OXFORD ECONOMICSToward a global carbon pricing systemHINRICH-IMD SUSTAINABLE TRADE INDEX 2024 DEEP DIVE2HINRICH FOUNDATION REPORT – TOWARD A GLOBAL CARBON PRICING SYSTEM By Oxford EconomicsContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3CARBON LEAKAGE IN FRAGMENTED CARBON MARKETS 7 Global carbon pricing remains fragmented 7 Fragmentation increases the risk of carbon leakage 9 THE STICKS AND CARROTS TO TACKLE CARBON LEAKAGE 12 Border carbon adjustments are effective “sticks” 12 to tackle carbon leakage Global climate progress will require more “carrots” 13REGIONAL CARBON MARKETS AS A CRITICAL COMPLEMENT 17 TO GLOBAL CARBON PRICING The role of regional carbon markets for developing countries 17 Roadmap towards developing regional carbon markets 19 CONCLUSION 26ENDNOTES 27 ABBREVIATIONS 29ABOUT OXFORD ECONOMICS 303HINRICH FOUNDATION REPORT – TOWARD A GLOBAL CARBON PRICING SYSTEM By Oxford EconomicsFragmented carbon markets and carbon leakage are undermining the chances of meeting global goals of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Key among the failures is the inability to coordinate policy that develops markets to coalesce around global carbon price benchmarks.Carbon markets across the world remain underdeveloped and fragmented. In the compliance market, implemented emissions trading systems (ETSs) and carbon taxes cover only 24% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Meanwhile, the voluntary carbon credits market, which is built on the issuance and trade of carbon credits, has seen trading activity slowing in the past two years, due to a resurgence of fossil fuels and persisting integrity scandals tainting the credibility of carbon credits. The fledgling structure of carbon markets raises the risks of carbon leakage and disincentivizes the uptake of carbon pricing. Based on empirical and simulation evidence, the World Trade Organization (WTO)1 found that every reduction of 100 metric tons of carbon emissions domestically is associated with an increase of 5 to 30 metric tons of emissions abroad. Carbon leakage happens partly through the competitiveness channel, whereby stringent carbon pricing policy in one country raises domestic production costs, causing local firms to lose price competitiveness to firms in other jurisdictions with looser regulations and encouraging potential relocation of production elsewhere. This loss of economic competitiveness often creates disincentives for governments to ramp up their carbon pricing regimes. This vicious cycle of uneven carbon pricing regimes and carbon leakage prevents global coordination and negatively affects the development of carbon markets globally. Currently, only 1% of global emissions are priced above the level recommended by the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices and Competitiveness, a panel backed by the World Bank comprising a voluntary group of dozens of governments, private sector organizations, non-profits, and academia, that sough