Capgemini-陷入动荡：美国航空航天业准备应对关税逆风-评估经济和战略影响（英）

Flying into turbulence: the US Aerospace industry braces for tariff headwinds Assessing the economic and strategic impact Company Confidential. Copyright © 2025 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 2 Introduction The aerospace and defense (A&D) industry seems to soar high above the dark clouds cast by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite facing significant headwinds in recent years, this industry was expected to experience record deliveries in 2025 and beyond. From increasing input costs, to disrupting supply chains, and consequently impacting consumer sentiment, the current administration’s tariffs targeting among others China, the EU, and Mexico threaten to severely impact American enterprises. A rapidly evolving policy outlook and the many uncertainties arising from it compel governments and corporations alike to re-evaluate strategic priorities and operational plans and to recalibrate economic projections. The frenzy of ongoing trade negotiations, coupled with developing global geo-political dynamics, will determine the road ahead. Whether these disruptions give way to new trade frameworks and alternative manufacturing strategies or contribute to prolonged uncertainty and heightened economic friction is not yet certain. This paper explores the motivations behind these policy shifts and their effects on trade, manufacturing, and, specifically, the aerospace industry. The paper discusses a framework that organizations can leverage to identify the exposure to tariffs and strategic options that can be deployed to navigate the turbulence. Company Confidential. Copyright © 2025 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3 Policy imperatives: The recent maneuvers in tariffs are not isolated acts of policy formulation. They are strategic components of a broader economic and geopolitical agenda to enable and create opportunities for US enterprises by bringing down perceived barriers. The key drivers behind these shifts can be categorized into the following dimensions: 1. Trade imbalances: The US has been trying to address longstanding trade deficits, particularly with China, and European Union. By taxing imported goods, the current administration aims to narrow the trade gap and encourage consumption of domestically produced goods. 2. Fair trade aspirations: Tariffs could also be positioned as instruments to drive equitable trade practices. The US seeks to counter perceived unfair advantages such as state subsidies, dumping, and non-tariff barriers that distort global competition. 3. Manufacturing sector focus: Tariffs aim to inject new life into the manufacturing sector. With higher tariffs, the US hopes to incentivize companies to relocate production facilities, rebuild industrial capacity, and, in certain cases, redeploy excess unused capacity to add wealth to local economies. 4. Security and intellectual proprietary protection: National security concerns, particularly around the theft of IP and forced technology transfers, have d