亚开行-加强亚太地区贫困统计能力的数据整合方法(英)

ADB BRIEFSNO. 341JUNE 2025ISBN 978-92-9277-322-9 (print)ISBN 978-92-9277-323-6 (PDF)ISSN 2071-7202 (print)ISSN 2218-2675 (PDF)Publication Stock No. BRF250199-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF250199-2Data Integration Approaches to Strengthen Asia and the Pacific’s Statistical Capacity to Map Poverty KEY POINTS• More granular and timely data on poverty in developing Asia and the Pacific can inform policy design and program targeting to better address the impact of shocks on different sections of the economy and society.• By integrating poverty mapping into national statistical systems, policymakers can ensure that resources are effectively directed to areas with the greatest need. • Earlier poverty mapping methods had previously relied on applying small area estimation techniques, which combine survey-based data with censuses and administrative data.• The integration of nontraditional data sources, such as call detail records and satellite imagery, has introduced innovative methods for predicting poverty. In a data-scarce environment, this advancement allows for real-time poverty estimation, offering dynamic and cost-efficient solutions.• Despite these advancements, key challenges remain, including gaps in technical expertise, limited access to private sector data, outdated statistical regulations, and resource constraints.Christian Flora Mae SocoConsultant Asian Development BankMildred AddaweConsultant ADBArturo Martinez, Jr.Senior Statistician ADBJoseph Albert Niño BulanAssociate Statistics Officer ADBMariko ShibasakiConsultant LocationMindINTRODUCTIONAs developing Asia and the Pacific (developing Asia) seeks to accelerate progress on tackling poverty, policymakers need data to provide detailed insights into the multiple dimensions of poverty and where people are most affected. For example, goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) focuses on ending poverty “in all its forms everywhere”.Poverty indicators are typically derived from surveys on household income, expenditure, or living standards. These surveys often have sample sizes large enough to provide nationally representative estimates and reliable estimates at higher geographic levels. However, they usually lack the sample size needed for reliable estimates at more granular levels, such as municipalities and villages. This limitation hinders policymakers from effectively targeting the most vulnerable population segments for poverty reduction programs. While increasing survey sample sizes to achieve reliable estimates at granular levels is ideal, it is often impractical due to the significant additional resources required, which are not readily available to national statistical organizations (NSOs) or survey organizations. As an alternative, some countries use poverty mapping methods.ADB BRIEFS NO. 3412By identifying specific geographic areas, including those with significant pockets of poverty, geographically disaggregated data and statistics produced through poverty maps can em

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本报告探讨了如何通过数据整合方法提升亚太地区贫困统计能力,以更精准地制定减贫政策并应对经济冲击。 1. 贫困地图的精细化与实时化需求:传统家庭调查数据难以提供市镇或村庄级别的可靠贫困估算,而整合非传统数据源(如通话记录、卫星影像)结合机器学习技术,可实现更动态、低成本的实时贫困预测。 2. 创新数据应用案例:亚洲开发银行的技术援助项目在印尼、菲律宾和泰国试点,通过融合大数据分析、遥感技术等创新数据源,成功构建了更细粒度的贫困地图。 3. 现存实施挑战:尽管技术进步显著,仍面临统计人才短缺、私营部门数据获取受限、统计法规滞后以及资源不足等关键障碍,制约了贫困监测体系的全面升级。 4. 疫情加剧减贫复杂性:COVID-19使亚太极端贫困人口回升至1.64亿(2024年),虽然2030年极端贫困率可能降至1%,但中度贫困和经济脆弱人群占比仍将达38%,凸显精准施策的紧迫性。 5. 制度性整合路径:建议将贫困地图方法系统化纳入国家统计体系,通过政企数据合作、技术能力建设及法规更新,确保资源能精准投向需求最迫切的区域。
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