英文【Bernstein】索纳BLW：电动汽车风险增加，评级下调至与市场表现一致

10 June 2025Rating ChangeIndia SMID PortfolioSona Blw Precision Forgings LtdRatingMarket-Perform (Outperform OLD)Price TargetSONACOMS.IN540.00 INR (550.00 OLD)Venugopal Garre+65 6326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.comAnkit Agrawal, CFA+91 226 842 1441ankit.agrawal@bernsteinsg.comAdjusted EPSF25AF26EF27ESONACOMS.IN (INR)9.8811.7213.12 OLD--11.7313.61FinancialsF25AF26EF27ECAGRRevenues (M)35,46045,33653,54422.9%EBITDA (M)9,66811,86113,637--Adjusted Net Income (M)5,9977,2878,159--CFO (M)7,7526,2489,0297.9%Cost of Goods Sold (M)15,44720,40124,630--Dividend/Share1.601.902.13--EBIT (M)8,3939,97311,067--Valuation MetricsF25AF26EF27EAdjusted P/E (x)52.844.539.7Reported P/E (x)52.844.539.7EV/FCF (x)85.6111.560.9EV/Sales (x)8.66.85.7P/B (x)5.75.24.7Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Sona BLW: EV risks increasing-Downgrade to Market-PerformWe are downgrading Sona BLW to Market-Perform. Trump–Elon tensions, the proposed"big, beautiful" bill phasing out EV subsidies, ongoing US–India trade issues, and the risingstrength of Chinese OEMs all present near-term risks for Sona BLW. With significant USexposure and the bulk of its order book tied to EVs, we see risk of earnings downgrades,which could cap further upside following the recent rally.Our earlier positive view on Sona was based on its rising EV order book (now 77% of mix),expanding total addressable market as EVs require higher content per vehicle of its products,expanding product offerings, and a robust order book at $2.8bn (6x trailing sales), all drivinga 32% EBITDA CAGR over the past five years.However, the near-term outlook has deteriorated. US EV growth has slowed, and pendinglegislation may phase out the EV tax credit by end-2025, revoke California’s strictermandates, and relax EPA emission targets—reducing urgency for OEMs to scale up EVofferings. Sona’s largest customer, a US EV OEM (15–20% of revenue), has been losingshare. With 77% of the order book tied to EVs and 40% of revenues from the US, delays inOEM investments could slow execution.We lower our FY27–28 Auto estimates by 4–5%. However, with the earlier consolidation ofthe India rail business, there is no FY26 cut at the consolidated level. Sona now trades at 42xFwd PE, closer to its three-year average, which is fair given the long term growth profile. Butgiven limited near-term upside and risks of further cuts, we prefer to stay on the sidelines.Our long-term positive view stays, given its strong design capabilities and focus on newproducts (HV e-motors, humanoid and drone components).Investment ImplicationsGiven limited upside to our target and near term risks, we downgrade to Market-Performrating with a revised target of Rs540 (vs Rs550 earlier).Close Date 9 Jun 2025SONACOMS.IN Close Price (INR) 521.35Price Target (INR) 540.00Upside/(Downside) 4%52-Week Range 768.65/379.80ASIAX1,389.92FYE MarDiv Yield 0.6%Market Cap (INR) (M) 324,133EV (INR) (M) 306,454PerformanceYTD1M6M12MAbsolute (%)(12.3)4.2(21.0)(21.5)ASIAX (%)8.14.