小米集团（1810.HK）业绩回顾：2025年第一季度业绩因AIoT-电动汽车业务及强劲的中国销售而超预期；未来一个月将有重要事件；上调目标价并重申买入（英）

Key Data __________________________________ GS Forecast ________________________________ GS Factor Profile ____________________________ Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.Market cap: HK$1.3tr / $170.6bnEnterprise value: HK$1.1tr / $143.8bn3m ADTV: HK$15.6bn / $2.0bnChinaChina Internet VerticalsM&A Rank: 3Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No12/2412/25E12/26E12/27ERevenue (Rmb mn) New365,906.4478,660.6610,284.1726,044.3Revenue (Rmb mn) Old365,906.4474,740.6602,243.7717,109.2EBITDA (Rmb mn)30,821.252,555.672,500.089,060.4EPS (Rmb) New1.071.592.202.73EPS (Rmb) Old1.071.512.082.58P/E (X)16.629.921.517.4P/B (X)2.44.63.83.1Dividend yield (%)0.00.00.00.0CROCI (%)16.030.737.139.43/256/25E9/25E12/25EEPS (Rmb)0.420.360.380.421810.HK relative to Asia ex. Japan Coverage1810.HK relative to China Internet VerticalsGrowthFinancial ReturnsMultipleIntegratedPercentile20th40th60th80th100th Xiaomi’s 1Q25 results stayed robust and beat expectations. Revenue grew +47% yoy to Rmb111bn (2% above GSe/Visible Alpha Consensus Data, or +23% yoy for the core business) and adj. net profit grew +65% yoy to Rmb10.7bn (13-14% above GSe/consensus, or +24% yoy for the core business). Key segments that we focus on into results – AIoT and EV – continued to surprise us to the upside. 1) AIoT generated +59% yoy revenue growth driven by outperformance of key AIoT segments; revenue of tablets, large appliances and wearables (35-40% of AIoT 1Q25 revenue) grew +73%/114%/57% yoy notably outpacing the market. Premiumization extended beyond smartphones and EV; ASP of tablets and large appliances grew c.10%/20% yoy in 1Q25, while TV/laptop sales +c.30% yoy. Meanwhile, AIoT surpassed internet services to become the largest gross profit contributor (39% of Xiaomi core GP in 1Q25), with GPM +5.4pp yoy to record high 25.2%. 2) Smart EV GPM expanded to 23.2% (+2.7pp qoq, above 16% for XPEV/TSLA and 20% for BYD/LI, vs. 12% qoq increase of EV revenue), which we primarily attribute to Xiaomi’s strong pricing power on the hero product, lower BOM cost on scale expansion, and rising Car IoT/services sales. Adj. loss from smart EV, AI and other new initiatives further narrowed to Rmb200mn (consistent with GSe), despite heightened R&D investments in XRING (Rmb6bn in 2025) and re-allocation of LLM-related AI expenses. Smartphone and internet services came in largely in line with GSe on revenue and GPM, with robust China revenue growth (smartphone/internet sales +40%/15% yoy) offsetting softer overseas revenue (smartphone/internet sales -15%/+7% yoy). We 1810.HK12m Price Target: HK$65.00Price: HK$51.55Upside: 26.1%Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Earnings Review: 1Q25 results beat on AIoT/EV and strong China sales; An eventful month ahead; Raise TP and reiterate Buy28 May 2025 | 6:43AM HKT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that c