英文【Bernstein】巴贾杰汽车第四季度：走在稳定增长的道路上

30 May 2025India AutosBajaj Auto LtdRatingOutperformPrice TargetBJAUT.IN11,000 INRVenugopal Garre+65 6326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.comAnkit Agrawal, CFA+91 226 842 1441ankit.agrawal@bernsteinsg.comAdjusted EPSF24AF25EF26EBJAUT.IN (INR)276.10273.91355.31FinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRRevenues (M)448,704519,904601,482--EBITDA (M)87,616103,695120,338--Net Earnings (M)77,08276,46999,194--Net Debt (Cash) (M)(224,357)(248,717)(297,335)--Operating Earnings (M)83,96899,883116,074--Valuation Metrics24A25E26EPEG Reported (x)1.16.41.1Reported P/E (x)32.132.425.0Adjusted P/E (x)32.132.425.0P/B (x)8.67.76.7EV/EBITDA (x)28.023.620.4Div Yield (%)0.91.82.0FCF Yield (%)2.362.223.46Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Bajaj Auto Q4: On a steady growth pathBajaj Auto continues to demonstrate its ability to sustain margins regardless of the operatingenvironment—a key driver behind its strong Q4 performance. Overall a positive outlook,especially for exports was communicated. Maintain OutperformBajaj delivered a respectable Q4 with margins sustaining despite headwinds from KTMexport suspension, soft domestic volumes, and an increasing EV mix. Management hasguided for 15–20% export growth and 5–6% 2W industry growth led by 125cc+.Export growth remained strong, driven by robust performance in LATAM markets, and Bajajis now scaling up its Brazil capacity. A key catalyst ahead is KTM—regulatory approvals forthe KTM acquisition are expected by mid-CY25, with KTM exports to resume from Q2. Onthe domestic front, management commentary stayed positive despite some softness early inQ1, which was attributed to sluggish urban sentiment, while rural demand has held up better.Although industry volumes may remain volatile, FY26 growth is projected at 5–6%, led bythe 125cc+ segment. Bajaj aims to outperform the segment, having launched six new Pulsarmodels in Q4FY25, with additional variants and a new 125cc model planned.Bajaj is now India’s largest electric 2W/3W player, with several new launches in the pipeline.While the industry may face near-term production challenges due to magnet supplyconstraints, Bajaj continues to expand its portfolio. In the 3W segment, the new “GoGo”brand and an e-rickshaw launch are planned for July.Q4 margins were strong, supported by USD depreciation, stable commodity prices, andan improved product mix. However, some of these benefits are expected to reverse in thecoming quarter, though planned price hikes should help offset part of the impact.Investment ImplicationsMaintain OutperformClose Date 29 May 2025BJAUT.IN Close Price (INR) 8,874.50Price Target (INR) 11,000Upside/(Downside) 24%52-Week Range 12,774/7,088.25ASIAX1,366.30FYE MarDiv Yield 2.4%Market Cap (INR) (B)2,478.27EV (INR) (B)2,452.33PerformanceYTD1M6M12MAbsolute (%)0.910.5(1.8)(1.0)ASIAX (%)6.35.46.29.5Relative (%)(5.4)5.1(7.9)(10.5)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Price Performance, 1YRINR14000INR13000INR12000INR11000INR10000INR9000INR8000INR700005/2408/2