联合国贸易发展委员会-边境非关税措施，GTAP层面分析（英）

The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States. The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers and boundaries. This paper has not been formally edited.Trade policy, non-tariff measures, ad-valorem equivalents, GTAPKey wordsAbstractNon-tariff measures at the border, a GTAP level analysisNon-tariff measures can significantly increase trade costs and distort trade flows. This study uses the GTAP model to assess the impact of reducing compliance costs associated with border non-tariff measures on trade and other economic indicators. The purpose of this paper is to present some illustrative statistics on border non-tariff measures, introduce the new GTAP 11 Satellite Database, which provides ad-valorem equivalents for border measures, and demonstrate how it can be applied in the GTAP model to assess the general equilibrium effects of cost reductions. Although the GTAP simulations are not directly linked to specific policy actions, this research provides valuable insights into how reducing border non-tariff measure costs could enhance trade flows and promote regional integration strategies.May 2025UNCTAD/WP/2025/1#09Alessandro NicitaTrade Analysis Branch, Division on International Trade and Commodities, UNCTADalessandro.nicita@unctad.orgUNITED NATI O NS CO NFE R E NCE O N T R A D E A N D D E VE L OP M E N TWorking paper Ksenia KoloskovaTrade Analysis Branch, Division on International Trade and Commodities, UNCTADditcinfo@unctad.org2Working paper #09May 2025ContentsAcknowledgementsUNCTAD gratefully acknowledges the substantive contributions of Erwin Corong of the Centre for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Economics at Purdue University, United States of America. 2Working paper #09May 2025Acknowledgements ....................................................................... 21. Introduction .............................................................................. 32. Non-Tariff Measures at the border ......................................... 62.1 Incidence: descriptive statistics on border NTMs ..........................72.2 Cost estimates of border NTMs .....................................................103. Effects on global trade of a 50 per cent reduction in the costs associated with border NTMs ......................... 183.2 Results of a reduction in the border NTM-related costs in the AFCFTA and RCEP .....................................................244. Conclusions .......................................................................... 26References .............................................................................