韩国央行-经济展望（2025年5月）（英）

PRESS RELEASEMay 29, 2025Research Department & Office of Economic Modeling and Policy AnalysisEconomic Outlook (May 2025)Summary ▣ GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been sharply revised downward from 1.5% in February to 0.8%.￭ The recovery in domestic demand has been delayed, while export growth is expected to slow further due to the impact of U.S. tariffs.￭ The future growth path is subject to both upside and downside risks related to trade negotiations, and will be significantly influenced by whether, and to what extent, the government’s economic stimulus measures are implemented. ▣ CPI inflation is projected to stay stable at 1.9% in 2025.￭ The upward pressure from rising prices of processed foods and services are expected to be offset by downward pressure such as falling global oil prices and low demand.￭ The future inflation path is expected to be influenced by domestic and global economic conditions, exchange rate and oil price movements, and the government’s price stabilization measures.< Contacts >Macro Forecasting & Research TeamMinji GoSoo Jung Chang+82-2-759-4166 (mjgo@bok.or.kr)+82-2-759-4254 (crystalj@bok.or.kr)Economic OutlookIndigo BookMay 2025Key Assumptions of the OutlookKey Assumptions of the OutlookKey Assumptions of the Outlook............................ 1 1 1Ⅰ.Ⅰ.Ⅰ. EconomicEconomicEconomic ConditionsConditionsConditions ............................................. 2 2 2Ⅱ.Ⅱ.Ⅱ. Economic Outlook Economic Outlook Economic Outlook ................................................. 444Ⅲ. Risks to the Outlook Ⅲ. Risks to the Outlook Ⅲ. Risks to the Outlook .......................................... 777 Appendix 1. Forecast Summary Appendix 2. Quarterly Forecasts for the One-Year-Ahead Horizon- 1 -Key Assumptions of the OutlookKey Assumptions of the OutlookKey Assumptions of the Outlook▢ [U.S. Tariff Policies] Taking into account recent outcomes of tariff negotiations between the United States and major countries, such as the United Kingdom and China, we assumed that the current structure of baseline 10% and item-specific 25% tariffs will generally be maintained.* * We also assumed that item-specific tariffs would be partially imposed, at around 10% rate, in the second half of the year on products such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. § This reflects a more intensified tariff policy stance compared to the assumptions made in the February outlook, with a broader range of target countries and higher tariff rates. However, it also represents a moderation from the situation in early April, when reciprocal tariff measures were announced on April 2 (at 25% on Korea) and when U.S.-China retaliatory actions escalated on April 10. Main Points of the Baseline Scenario February Outlook∙ The United States imposes a certain level of tariffs at 5%-10% during this year, including item-specific tariffs, on major countries with which the U.S. has large trade deficits, followed by a gradual reduction throughout