麦肯锡-关税对半导体行业的影响（英）

May 2025Semiconductors PracticeThe effects of tariffs on the semiconductor industryGiven the shifting landscape, semiconductor executives could prepare their companies by determining the potential impacts of tariffs and exploring different scenarios to mitigate them. This article is a collaborative effort by Bill Wiseman, Henry Marcil, and Syed Alam, with Nicholas Liao, Taylor Roundtree, and Teddy Stopford, representing views from McKinsey’s Semiconductor Practice. This analysis does not constitute legal or regulatory advice; it is based solely on publicly available information. Content is updated as of May 7, 2025.In 2024, the semiconductor industry created the fourth-largest value by market capitalization after high tech, life sciences (pharmaceuticals and biotech), and media and entertainment (Exhibit 1). Semiconductors underpin critical industries from consumer electronics to automotives to aerospace and defense (A&D), and they form the basis for many national security technologies. For these reasons, countries have recently been exploring trade measures of double- and even triple-digit tariffs as well as material export restrictions. For example, on April 2, 2025, the United States announced reciprocal tariffs on 1 “Semiconductors have a big opportunity—but barriers to scale remain,” McKinsey, April 21, 2025.many nations, including China. During subsequent escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, both nations applied tariffs exceeding 100 percent on imported goods. On export restrictions, China produces about 95 percent of gallium and germanium, raw materials that are critical for certain semiconductors.1 In December 2024, China announced export restrictions on both materials, increasing supply vulnerabilities. Geopolitical tensions have led semiconductor companies and downstream players—electronics manufacturing services (EMS) companies, automotive OEMs, consumer electronics product companies, and distributors—to devise strategies aimed at maintaining production volumes and operating margins. Exhibit 1High-techPharmaandbiotechMediaandentertain-mentSemi-conductorsConsumerpackagedgoodsInsuranceBanksOil andgasRetailApparel,fashion,andluxury268155153123120115112908037Web 2025r><MCK257353 Tarif Efects on the Semiconductor Market>Exhibit <1> of <9>Value creation by global industry, 2024 market cap, $ billion In 2024, semiconductors were the fourth-largest industry globally by value creation.McKinsey & CompanySource: S&P Capital IQ 2The effects of tariffs on the semiconductor industryAmid this volatility, the semiconductor industry is well positioned to play a critical role in helping its downstream customers navigate the impact of tariffs on end consumers. Semiconductors constitute a significant portion of the bill of materials (BOM) for many commonly used products. Further, the public and private sectors have prioritized the industry after pandemic-era shortages of chips highlighted their vital role in most products a