IMF-ECCU CBI项目：区域意义和风险（英）

ECCU CBI Programs: Regional Significance and Risks Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Janne Hukka SIP/2025/067IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on April 9, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/105. 2025 MAY © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/067 IMF Selected Issues Paper Western Hemisphere Department ECCU CBI Programs: Regional Significance and Risks Prepared by Janne Hukka Authorized for distribution by Christoph Duenwald May 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on April 9, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/105. ABSTRACT: The Citizenship-by-Investment Programs (CBI) have long been recognized in their importance to fiscal revenue in the ECCU, but there is less clarity over their broader economic contributions. At the same time, investor demand in this market can be highly unpredictable, especially as the programs have come under increased international scrutiny. This paper takes stock of recent CBI developments in the ECCU and estimates that total investments under these programs far outweigh those directly contributing to government revenue. This underscores the need for ongoing regional efforts to reduce the CBI programs’ risk susceptibility as well as to strengthen management of residual risks, including through: (i) clearer provisions for CBI revenues’ budget use to mitigate fiscal risks; and (ii) enhanced transparency standards and ex-post assessments of CBI projects to inform regional best practices, assessments of the program’s systemic significance, and development of contingency plans. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Hukka, J. (2025). ECCU CBI Programs: Regional Significance and Risks, IMF Selected Issues Paper, SIP/2025/067. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. JEL Classification Numbers: F21, H27 Keywords: Caribbean, ECCU, Citizenship-by-Investment, Foreign Direct Investment, Non-tax Government Revenue. Author’s E-Mail Address: JHukka@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS ECCU CBI Programs: Regional Significance and Risks Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Prepared by Janne Hukka1 1 The author would like to thank Christoph Duenwald, Sami Naceur and Jongsoon Shin for helpful suggestions. EASTERN CARIBBEAN CURRENCY UNION SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByPrepared By Janne Hukka (WHD). ECCU CBI PROGRAMS: REGIONAL SIGNIFICANCE AND RISKS _____________________ 2 FIGURE 1. Historical and Projected Government CBI Revenue___________________________________ 3TABLES 1. Overview of the ECCU CBI Programs _________________________________________________ 32. Overview of the Recent ECCU CBI Reform Initiatives _________________________________ 5Referenc