世界银行-拉丁美洲和加勒比：2025年春季会议发展中国家宏观贫困展望国别分析和预测（英）

MMMPPOOO04/2025Latin America and the CaribbeanCountry-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing WorldCountry-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing WorldMACRO POVERTYOUTLOOKPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized© 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Macro Poverty Outlook / April 2025Macro Poverty Outlook / April 20251Latin America and the CaribbeanArgentinaBahamas, The Barbados Belize BoliviaBrazil ChileColombiaCosta Rica Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Grenada Guatemala GuyanaHaiti Honduras JamaicaMexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay PeruSaint LuciaSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSuriname Trinidad and TobagoUruguayARGENTINASubstantial progress has been achieved in addressingmacroeconomic imbalances. Inflation is decelerating, thetwin deficits have been eliminated, economic activity isrecovering, and the Central Bank’s balance sheet is graduallystrengthening. Real GDP is projected to grow by 5.5 percentin 2025. Poverty is estimated at 13.3 percent by end-2024.However, balancing inflation reduction with the removal ofexchange rate and capital controls poses significant risks.Key conditions and challengesArgentina boasts vast natural resources, a highly skilled workforce,andstrongcomparativeadvantagesinagroindustry,aswellasselect-ed manufacturing and service sectors. Despite this potential, thecountry has faced recurring macroeconomic crises over the pastdecades. Weak macroeconomic management, primarily driven bythe monetary financing of fiscal deficits, has led to persistently highinflation, capital and exchange rate controls, and mounting debt.In December 2023, authorities launched an ambitious macroeco-nomic stabilization