世界银行-欧洲和中亚：2025年春季会议发展中国家宏观贫困展望国别分析和预测（英）

MMMPPOOO04/2025Europe and Central AsiaCountry-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing WorldCountry-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing WorldMACRO POVERTYOUTLOOKPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized© 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Macro Poverty Outlook / April 2025Macro Poverty Outlook / April 20251Europe and Central AsiaAlbania Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia and HerzegovinaBulgaria Croatia Georgia Kazakhstan Kosovo Kyrgyz Republic Moldova MontenegroNorth Macedonia Poland Romania Russian Federation Serbia Tajikistan TürkiyeUkraine UzbekistanALBANIAGrowth remained strong in 2024, at around 3.9 percent, dri-ven by private consumption, tourism, and construction,whileinflationpressureseased.Povertyslightlydeclinedamidongoingjobandwageexpansion.Risinggeopoliticaltensionsanduncertaintyintradepolicyposeriskstothemedium-termoutlook,asprospectshingeonexternaldemandandcontinu-ityinstructuralreforms.EuropeanUnion(EU)accessioneffortsareexpectedtosupportconvergenceandlong-termgrowth.Key conditions and challengesAlbania is an open economy, leveraging its EU proximity forexports, investment, and remittances. Growth has averaged3 percent annually over the 10 years, yet Albania’s per capi-ta income remains one-third of the EU average (2021 realUS$). Despite structural challenges, the economy has shownresilience to 2019-2022 crises, averaging 4.2 percent growthper annum in 2022–2024, supported by increased trade withthe EU, a strong tourism sector, and hydropower production,which meets up to 90 percent of energy demand in normalrainfall years.The exchange rate has appreciated significantly in recentyears, reflecting sustained inflows from e