未来能源研究所-买不买电动汽车？美国消费者意向的贝叶斯分析（英）

To Buy an Electric Vehicle or Not? A Bayesian Analysis of Consumer Intent in the United StatesNafisa Lohawala and Mohammad Arshad RahmanWorking Paper 25-16 May 2025About the Authors Nafisa Lohawala is a fellow at Resources for the Future (RFF). She earned a PhD in economics at the University of Michigan after receiving a BS-MS dual degree in economics with a minor in computer science and engineering (algorithms) from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur. Lohawala’s research lies at the intersection of industrial organization, energy economics, and public financeMohammad Arshad Rahman is an associate professor in the Department of Economic Sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IITK), India. His research interests include Bayesian Econometrics, Quantile Regression, Discrete Choice Modeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo Techniques, Machine Learning, Energy Economics, and Applied Econometrics.Acknowledgements We thank Beia Spiller, Deep Mukherjee, and Joshua Linn for helpful comments and suggestions, and the RFF communications team for their assistance with dissemination. All remaining errors are our own.About RFFResources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution in Washington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF is committed to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policy solutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy. Working papers are research materials circulated by their authors for purposes of information and discussion. They have not necessarily undergone formal peer review. The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from those of other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors.Sharing Our WorkOur work is available for sharing and adaptation under an Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) license. You can copy and redistribute our material in any medium or format; you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made, and you may not apply additional restrictions. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. You may not use the material for commercial purposes. If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you may not distribute the modified material. For more information, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.To Buy an Electric Vehicle or Not? A Bayesian Analysis ofConsumer Intent in the United StatesNafisa LohawalaResources for the Future, Washington DC, USAMohammad Arshad Rahman∗Department of Economic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, India.AbstractThe adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is considered critical to achieving climate goals, yet ithinges on consumer interest. This study explores how public intent to purchas